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Chiefs at Bills

NFL · Sunday, Nov 2 · 3:25 PM CT · Highmark Stadium (Old) · Final KC 21 – BUF 28
← NFL / Nov 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
KC0130821
BUF7147028
Team box
KC·BUF
305
total yards
404
226
passing yards
263
79
rushing yards
141
16
first downs
23
3-13
third downs
7-12
1
turnovers
0
25:15
time of possession
34:45
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Patrick MahomesKC15/3425001
Josh AllenBUF23/2627310
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kareem HuntKC11491
James Cook IIIBUF271140
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Rashee RiceKC4800
Dalton KincaidBUF61011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +15
KC +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BUF 15 · KC 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 43%, BUF 57% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 2.3
Expected score
BUF 25.1 – 22.9 KC
Expected total
48.0
ChiefsThe matchupBills
+133Our fair odds−133
22.9Expected points25.1
+0.75Power rating+0.69
26.8Points / game29.6
16.4Allowed / game20.9
378Total yards / game383
5.8Yards / play6.1
252Passing yards / game218
5−3Season record5−2
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · BUF chance
Our model fair43.0%57.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs+13343%————
BUFBuffalo Bills−13357%————
SpreadBUF by 2.3
KCKansas City Chiefs+2.3our margin————
BUFBuffalo Bills−2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.0
Over48.0our total————
Under48.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 2.3 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 42 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 41 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 8%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 7%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 42 points: <1%
← KC wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more49%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more33%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.0 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.565%
Total over 48.546%
Total over 55.529%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 74% completions, 281 yds/game, 9 TD, 2 INTstarted
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 64% completions, 199 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·BUF
Oct 27, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Oct 26, 2025 at CAR
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
KC·BUF
+0.75
rating (0 = average)
+0.69
26.8
points / game
29.6
16.4
points allowed / game
20.9
5−3
season record
5−2
4−1
home record
3−1
1−2
away record
2−1
W3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
7−3
378
total yards / game
383
5.8
yards / play
6.1
252
passing yards / game
218
126
rushing yards / game
164
23.6
first downs / game
23.1
0.5
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

KC · BUF · 23 days
Kansas City ChiefsBuffalo Bills
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 7 meetings · BUF 4−3
Jan 26, 2025at KCKC 32 − 29post
Nov 17, 2024at BUFBUF 30 − 21
Jan 21, 2024at BUFKC 27 − 24post
Dec 10, 2023at KCBUF 20 − 17
Oct 16, 2022at KCBUF 24 − 20
Jan 23, 2022at KCKC 42 − 36post
Oct 10, 2021at KCBUF 38 − 20

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Oct 27, 2025vs WSH28 − 7W
Oct 19, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Oct 12, 2025vs DET30 − 17W
Oct 6, 2025at JAX28 − 31L
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL37 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at NYG22 − 9W
Sep 14, 2025vs PHI17 − 20L
Sep 5, 2025at LAC21 − 27L
Feb 9, 2025at PHI22 − 40L
Jan 26, 2025vs BUF32 − 29W

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 26, 2025at CAR40 − 9W
Oct 13, 2025at ATL14 − 24L
Oct 5, 2025vs NE20 − 23L
Sep 28, 2025vs NO31 − 19W
Sep 18, 2025vs MIA31 − 21W
Sep 14, 2025at NYJ30 − 10W
Sep 7, 2025vs BAL41 − 40W
Jan 26, 2025at KC29 − 32L
Jan 19, 2025vs BAL27 − 25W
Jan 12, 2025vs DEN31 − 7W