bayesRatings

49ers at Giants

NFL · Sunday, Nov 2 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final SF 34 – NYG 24
← NFL / Nov 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF71031434
NYG7031424
Team box
SF·NYG
380
total yards
296
221
passing yards
179
159
rushing yards
117
25
first downs
19
6-11
third downs
5-12
1
turnovers
0
33:11
time of possession
26:49
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Mac JonesSF19/2423520
Jaxson DartNYG24/3319120
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF281061
Jaxson DartNYG8561
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF5671
Darius SlaytonNYG5620

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYG +17
SF +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYG 7 · SF 17lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 57%, NYG 43% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
SF by 2.2
Expected score
SF 22.9 – 20.7 NYG
Expected total
43.6
49ersThe matchupGiants
−134Our fair odds+134
22.9Expected points20.7
+0.09Power rating−0.59
20.0Points / game21.6
20.5Allowed / game26.9
349Total yards / game325
5.3Yards / play5.1
259Passing yards / game207
5−3Season record2−6
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · NYG chance
Our model fair57.3%42.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers−13457%————
NYGNew York Giants+13443%————
SpreadSF by 2.2
SFSan Francisco 49ers−2.2our margin————
NYGNew York Giants+2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.6
Over43.6our total————
Under43.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 2.2 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 5%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 9%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%New York Giants by 2 points: 3%New York Giants by 3 points: 7%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 6 points: 4%New York Giants by 7 points: 3%New York Giants by 8 points: 2%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 2%New York Giants by 11 points: 1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: 1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 17 points: 2%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: 1%New York Giants by 21 points: 1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: 1%New York Giants by 24 points: 1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%
← SF wins byNYG wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more53%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more34%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.6 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFMac Jones · last 3 games: 65% completions, 231 yds/game, 2 TD, 4 INTstarted
NYGJaxson Dart · last 3 games: 56% completions, 224 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·NYG
Oct 26, 2025 at HOU
last game
Oct 26, 2025 at PHI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
SF·NYG
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.59
20.0
points / game
21.6
20.5
points allowed / game
26.9
5−3
season record
2−6
2−1
home record
2−1
3−2
away record
0−5
L1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
349
total yards / game
325
5.3
yards / play
5.1
259
passing yards / game
207
89
rushing yards / game
118
20.9
first downs / game
20.6
1.5
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

SF · NYG · 23 days
San Francisco 49ersNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NYG 0−1
Sep 21, 2023at SFSF 30 − 12

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 26, 2025at HOU15 − 26L
Oct 19, 2025vs ATL20 − 10W
Oct 12, 2025at TB19 − 30L
Oct 2, 2025at LAR26 − 23W
Sep 28, 2025vs JAX21 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs ARI16 − 15W
Sep 14, 2025at NO26 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at SEA17 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025at ARI24 − 47L
Dec 30, 2024vs DET34 − 40L

NYG · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 26, 2025at PHI20 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025at DEN32 − 33L
Oct 9, 2025vs PHI34 − 17W
Oct 5, 2025at NO14 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs LAC21 − 18W
Sep 21, 2025vs KC9 − 22L
Sep 14, 2025at DAL37 − 40L
Sep 7, 2025at WSH6 − 21L
Jan 5, 2025at PHI13 − 20L
Dec 29, 2024vs IND45 − 33W