bayesRatings

Seahawks at Commanders

NFL · Sunday, Nov 2 · 7:20 PM CT · Northwest Stadium · Final SEA 38 – WSH 14
← NFL / Nov 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SEA7247038
WSH070714
Team box
SEA·WSH
418
total yards
290
330
passing yards
133
88
rushing yards
157
21
first downs
19
7-11
third downs
6-13
1
turnovers
2
27:18
time of possession
32:42
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Sam DarnoldSEA21/2433041
Jayden DanielsWSH16/2215301
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenneth Walker IIISEA11420
Chris Rodriguez Jr.WSH12651
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA81290
Zach ErtzWSH4460

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +31
SEA +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 0 · SEA 31lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 52%, WSH 48% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 1.9
Expected score
SEA 26.4 – 24.5 WSH
Expected total
50.9
SeahawksThe matchupCommanders
−108Our fair odds+108
26.4Expected points24.5
+0.42Power rating−0.03
27.6Points / game23.4
19.4Allowed / game24.8
351Total yards / game334
6.1Yards / play5.8
244Passing yards / game197
5−2Season record3−5
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair52.0%48.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks−10852%————
WSHWashington Commanders+10848%————
SpreadSEA by 1.9
SEASeattle Seahawks−1.9our margin————
WSHWashington Commanders+1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.9
Over50.9our total————
Under50.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 1.9 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 9%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 7%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%
← SEA wins byWSH wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more52%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more33%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.9 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.567%
Total over 50.549%
Total over 57.532%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 66% completions, 283 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 62% completions, 199 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·WSH
Oct 20, 2025 vs HOU
last game
Oct 27, 2025 at KC
12 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
SEA·WSH
+0.42
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
27.6
points / game
23.4
19.4
points allowed / game
24.8
5−2
season record
3−5
2−2
home record
2−1
3−0
away record
1−4
W2
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
4−6
351
total yards / game
334
6.1
yards / play
5.8
244
passing yards / game
197
106
rushing yards / game
138
19.4
first downs / game
18.8
1.7
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

SEA · WSH · 23 days
Seattle SeahawksWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · WSH 1−1
Nov 12, 2023at SEASEA 29 − 26
Nov 29, 2021at WSHWSH 17 − 15

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 20, 2025vs HOU27 − 19W
Oct 12, 2025at JAX20 − 12W
Oct 5, 2025vs TB35 − 38L
Sep 25, 2025at ARI23 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025vs NO44 − 13W
Sep 14, 2025at PIT31 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025vs SF13 − 17L
Jan 5, 2025at LAR30 − 25W
Dec 26, 2024at CHI6 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs MIN24 − 27L

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 27, 2025at KC7 − 28L
Oct 19, 2025at DAL22 − 44L
Oct 13, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025at LAC27 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025at ATL27 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs LV41 − 24W
Sep 11, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025vs NYG21 − 6W
Jan 26, 2025at PHI23 − 55L
Jan 18, 2025at DET45 − 31W