bayesRatings

Cardinals at Seahawks

NFL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 3:05 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final ARI 22 – SEA 44
← NFL / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ARI078722
SEA21170644
Team box
ARI·SEA
335
total yards
372
206
passing yards
174
129
rushing yards
198
21
first downs
22
6-16
third downs
6-10
2
turnovers
3
26:20
time of possession
33:40
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jacoby BrissettARI22/4425820
Sam DarnoldSEA10/1217811
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Emari DemercadoARI4640
Zach CharbonnetSEA14831
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Trey McBrideARI91271
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA5931

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +35
ARI +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 35 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 29%, SEA 71% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 7.4
Expected score
SEA 25.9 – 18.6 ARI
Expected total
44.5
CardinalsThe matchupSeahawks
+251Our fair odds−251
18.6Expected points25.9
−0.08Power rating+0.60
22.5Points / game28.9
21.4Allowed / game18.8
314Total yards / game359
5.0Yards / play6.4
202Passing yards / game255
3−5Season record6−2
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · SEA chance
Our model fair28.5%71.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Cardinals+25129%————
SEASeattle Seahawks−25171%————
SpreadSEA by 7.4
ARIArizona Cardinals+7.4our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−7.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.5
Over44.5our total————
Under44.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 7.4 expected
Arizona Cardinals by 46 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 45 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 44 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 43 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 42 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 6%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 43 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 44 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 45 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 46 points: <1%
← ARI wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more64%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more48%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more40%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.5 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.568%
Total over 44.547%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 66% completions, 287 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 66% completions, 279 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·SEA
Nov 3, 2025 at DAL
last game
Nov 2, 2025 at WSH
5 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
ARI·SEA
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.60
22.5
points / game
28.9
21.4
points allowed / game
18.8
3−5
season record
6−2
1−3
home record
2−2
2−2
away record
4−0
W1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
8−2
314
total yards / game
359
5.0
yards / play
6.4
202
passing yards / game
255
112
rushing yards / game
104
19.5
first downs / game
19.6
1.0
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

ARI · SEA · 26 days
Arizona CardinalsSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SEA 8−1
Sep 25, 2025at ARISEA 23 − 20
Dec 8, 2024at ARISEA 30 − 18
Nov 24, 2024at SEASEA 16 − 6
Jan 7, 2024at ARISEA 21 − 20
Oct 22, 2023at SEASEA 20 − 10
Nov 6, 2022at ARISEA 31 − 21
Oct 16, 2022at SEASEA 19 − 9
Jan 9, 2022at ARISEA 38 − 30
Nov 21, 2021at SEAARI 23 − 13

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 3, 2025at DAL27 − 17W
Oct 19, 2025vs GB23 − 27L
Oct 12, 2025at IND27 − 31L
Oct 5, 2025vs TEN21 − 22L
Sep 25, 2025vs SEA20 − 23L
Sep 21, 2025at SF15 − 16L
Sep 14, 2025vs CAR27 − 22W
Sep 7, 2025at NO20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs SF47 − 24W
Dec 28, 2024at LAR9 − 13L

SEA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Nov 2, 2025at WSH38 − 14W
Oct 20, 2025vs HOU27 − 19W
Oct 12, 2025at JAX20 − 12W
Oct 5, 2025vs TB35 − 38L
Sep 25, 2025at ARI23 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025vs NO44 − 13W
Sep 14, 2025at PIT31 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025vs SF13 − 17L
Jan 5, 2025at LAR30 − 25W
Dec 26, 2024at CHI6 − 3W