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Jaguars at Texans

NFL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final JAX 29 – HOU 36
← NFL / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
JAX10109029
HOU01002636
Team box
JAX·HOU
213
total yards
412
119
passing yards
282
94
rushing yards
130
19
first downs
27
4-11
third downs
10-15
2
turnovers
2
29:00
time of possession
31:00
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Trevor LawrenceJAX13/2315811
Davis MillsHOU27/4529221
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX16581
Woody MarksHOU14631
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jakobi MeyersJAX3410
Nico CollinsHOU71360

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +19
JAX +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 7 · JAX 19lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was JAX 34%, HOU 66% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 8.4
Expected score
HOU 22.9 – 14.6 JAX
Expected total
37.5
JaguarsThe matchupTexans
+193Our fair odds−193
14.6Expected points22.9
−0.18Power rating+0.23
22.0Points / game21.0
23.0Allowed / game15.1
339Total yards / game321
5.1Yards / play5.0
215Passing yards / game212
5−3Season record3−5
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
JAX chance · HOU chance
Our model fair34.1%65.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+19334%————
HOUHouston Texans−19366%————
SpreadHOU by 8.4
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+8.4our margin————
HOUHouston Texans−8.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 37.5
Over37.5our total————
Under37.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 8.4 expected
Jacksonville Jaguars by 47 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 46 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 45 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 44 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 43 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 6%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Houston Texans by 2 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 7%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 8 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: 2%Houston Texans by 14 points: 2%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 4%Houston Texans by 18 points: 2%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 2%Houston Texans by 21 points: 2%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 2%Houston Texans by 24 points: 2%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 26 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: 1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 29 points: 1%Houston Texans by 30 points: 1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 2%Houston Texans by 32 points: 1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: 1%Houston Texans by 35 points: 1%Houston Texans by 36 points: 1%Houston Texans by 37 points: 1%Houston Texans by 38 points: 1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 43 points: <1%Houston Texans by 44 points: <1%Houston Texans by 45 points: <1%Houston Texans by 46 points: <1%Houston Texans by 47 points: <1%
← JAX wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more66%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more51%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more43%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

37.5 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: 1%14 points: <1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 30.569%
Total over 37.548%
Total over 44.528%
Total from 31 to 4441%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 59% completions, 258 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted
HOUDavis Mills · last 3 games: 55% completions, 96 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
JAX·HOU
Nov 2, 2025 at LV
last game
Nov 2, 2025 vs DEN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
JAX·HOU
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
22.0
points / game
21.0
23.0
points allowed / game
15.1
5−3
season record
3−5
3−2
home record
2−2
2−1
away record
1−3
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
339
total yards / game
321
5.1
yards / play
5.0
215
passing yards / game
212
124
rushing yards / game
109
20.0
first downs / game
18.2
0.9
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

JAX · HOU · 26 days
Jacksonville JaguarsHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · HOU 6−3
Sep 21, 2025at JAXJAX 17 − 10
Dec 1, 2024at JAXHOU 23 − 20
Sep 29, 2024at HOUHOU 24 − 20
Nov 26, 2023at HOUJAX 24 − 21
Sep 24, 2023at JAXHOU 37 − 17
Jan 1, 2023at HOUJAX 31 − 3
Oct 9, 2022at JAXHOU 13 − 6
Dec 19, 2021at JAXHOU 30 − 16
Sep 12, 2021at HOUHOU 37 − 21

JAX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 2, 2025at LV30 − 29W
Oct 19, 2025vs LAR7 − 35L
Oct 12, 2025vs SEA12 − 20L
Oct 6, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Sep 28, 2025at SF26 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025vs HOU17 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at CIN27 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025vs CAR26 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025at IND23 − 26L
Dec 29, 2024vs TEN20 − 13W

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Nov 2, 2025vs DEN15 − 18L
Oct 26, 2025vs SF26 − 15W
Oct 20, 2025at SEA19 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025at BAL44 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025vs TEN26 − 0W
Sep 21, 2025at JAX10 − 17L
Sep 15, 2025vs TB19 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at LAR9 − 14L
Jan 18, 2025at KC14 − 23L
Jan 11, 2025vs LAC32 − 12W