Final Box Score
from the game summary| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| BUF | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Player | Team | G | A | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | TB | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Nikita Kucherov | TB | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Jake Guentzel | TB | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| Brandon Hagel | TB | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Anthony Cirelli | TB | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Tage Thompson | BUF | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Goalie | Team | SA | SV | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | TB | 31 | 28 | .903 |
| Colten Ellis | BUF | 8 | 5 | .625 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | 14 | 9 | .643 |
For context, not in our forecast.
Game Flow
score marginFor context, not in our forecast.
Final · our forecast was TB 53%, BUF 47% · Updated Nov 11
Justin Danforth · Matt Grzelcyk
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CT | Polymarket USpre-game · 5:59 PM CT | ProphetXpre-game · 5:57 PM CT | Novigpre-game · 6:00 PM CT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| TBTampa Bay Lightning | −11353% | −13757.7% | −13457.4% | −12355.3% | −12255.0% |
| BUFBuffalo Sabres | +11347% | +10947.7% | +10748.4% | +11247.2% | +12045.5% |
| Spreadabout even | |||||
| TBTampa Bay Lightning | −0.2our margin | −1.5 +18135.6% | −1.5 +17736.1% | −1.5 +18834.7% | −1.5 +19434.0% |
| BUFBuffalo Sabres | +0.2our margin | +1.5 −21868.5% | +1.5 −22469.1% | +1.5 −21668.4% | +1.5 −20867.5% |
| Totalwe expect 6.6 | |||||
| Over | 6.6our total | o6.5 −12154.7% | o6.5 −12455.4% | o6.5 −11653.8% | o6.5 −11553.5% |
| Under | 6.6our total | u6.5 +10149.7% | u6.5 −10150.4% | u6.5 +10648.4% | u6.5 +11347.0% |
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Even game expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,148 past NHL games.
Total range
6.6 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,148 past NHL games.
Starting Goalies
from the box scoreStarting goalies are part of our forecast.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.
Who's Out
Injury list before the game · Nov 11, 2026, 4:40 PM CTFor context, not in our forecast.