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Hawks at Pelicans

NBA · Saturday, Oct 31 · 6:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center
← NBA / Oct 31

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
ATL by 4.9
Expected score
ATL 122.3 – 117.3 NO
Expected total
239.6
HawksThe matchupPelicans
−187Our fair odds+187
122.3Expected points117.3
+0.30Power rating−0.60
119.2Points / game119.4
114.5Allowed / game121.6
46.7FG%49.2
36.03P%30.0
43.3Rebounds / game43.0
3−3Season record1−4
4−6Last 102−8
Henri Veesaar · Jalen Wilson
Keshon Gilbert · Mouhamed Gueye
RayJ DennisOut (5 each)Dejounte Murray · Jaron Pierre Jr.
Jordan Poole · Malik Dia
Yves Missi

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NO chance
Our model fair65.2%34.8%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket US67.6%36.6%
ProphetX66.2%36.5%
Novig65.5%35.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshilive · 6:18 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 5:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 5:58 PM CTNovigpre-game · 5:57 PM CT
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks−18765%−13757.7%−20867.6%−19666.2%−19065.5%
NONew Orleans Pelicans+18735%+11446.7%+17336.6%+17436.5%+18635.0%
SpreadATL by 4.9
ATLAtlanta Hawks−4.9our margin−4.5 −12154.7%−4.5 −12154.7%−4.5 −11653.8%−4.5 −11353.0%
NONew Orleans Pelicans+4.9our margin+4.5 +10149.7%+4.5 +10149.7%+4.5 +10648.4%+4.5 +11147.5%
Totalwe expect 239.6
Over239.6our totalo239.5 −11252.7%o239.5 −10751.7%o239.5 −10451.0%o239.5 −10250.5%
Under239.6our totalu239.5 −10751.8%u239.5 −11252.7%u239.5 −10751.7%u239.5 −10250.5%

The game has started: these are each venue’s last pre-game prices, except Kalshi’s moneyline, which is live. Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 4.9 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%
← ATL wins byNO wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more54%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more38%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

239.6 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 229.568%
Total over 239.549%
Total over 249.531%
Total from 230 to 24937%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Atlanta Hawks
PGCJ McCollumconfirmed
SGNickeil Alexander-Walkerconfirmed
SFDyson Danielsconfirmed
PFJalen Johnsonconfirmed
COnyeka Okongwuconfirmed
New Orleans Pelicans
PGJeremiah Fearsconfirmed
SGHerbert Jonesconfirmed
SFTrey Murphy IIIconfirmed
PFZion Williamsonconfirmed
CKarlo Matkovicconfirmed

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NO
Oct 29 vs CLE
last game
Oct 29 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 31, 6:45 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLHenri Veesaar · right acl tearOut
ATLJalen Wilson · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayOut
ATLMouhamed Gueye · left foot fractureOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLZuby Ejiofor · g league - on assignmentOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · personal reasonsOut
NOJaron Pierre Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
NOJordan Poole · left ankle sprainOut
NOMalik Dia · g league - two-wayOut
NOYves Missi · left knee contusion / bone bruiseOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
ATL·NO
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
−0.60
119.2
points / game
119.4
114.5
points allowed / game
121.6
3−3
season record
1−4
1−2
home record
1−2
2−1
away record
0−2
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
46.7
FG%
49.2
36.0
3P%
30.0
43.3
rebounds / game
43.0
32.5
assists / game
25.2
13.8
turnovers / game
17.4
55.0
points in paint / game
62.0

Rating Trend

ATL · NO · 11 days
Atlanta HawksNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 3−7
Jan 7at ATLATL 117 − 100
Nov 22, 2025at NOATL 115 − 98
Dec 2, 2024at ATLATL 124 − 112
Nov 3, 2024at NOATL 126 − 111
Mar 10, 2024at ATLNO 116 − 103
Nov 4, 2023at NOATL 123 − 105
Feb 7, 2023at NONO 116 − 107
Nov 5, 2022at ATLATL 124 − 121
Mar 20, 2022at ATLNO 117 − 112
Oct 27, 2021at NOATL 102 − 99

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 29vs CLE114 − 111W
Oct 28vs MIA117 − 129L
Oct 26at HOU110 − 120L
Oct 24vs HOU114 − 121L
Oct 23at CHA128 − 81W
Oct 21at ORL132 − 125W
Apr 30vs NY89 − 140L
Apr 28at NY97 − 126L
Apr 25vs NY98 − 114L
Apr 23vs NY109 − 108W

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 29vs SAC132 − 120W
Oct 28vs DEN91 − 104L
Oct 24at DEN135 − 141L
Oct 23at UTAH119 − 120L
Oct 21vs IND120 − 123L
Apr 12at MIN126 − 132L
Apr 10at BOS118 − 144L
Apr 7vs UTAH156 − 137W
Apr 5vs ORL108 − 112L
Apr 3at SAC113 − 117L