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Cavaliers at Bucks

NBA · Saturday, Oct 31 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum
← NBA / Oct 31

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
CLE by 8.1
Expected score
CLE 121.3 – 113.1 MIL
Expected total
234.4
CavaliersThe matchupBucks
−273Our fair odds+273
121.3Expected points113.1
+0.35Power rating−0.86
118.0Points / game113.4
117.0Allowed / game124.2
46.4FG%45.0
34.83P%33.8
46.6Rebounds / game49.6
3−2Season record1−4
4−6Last 103−7
Jaylon Tyson · Jr., Ernest Udeh
Khalifa Diop · Nae'Qwan TomlinOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · MIL chance
Our model fair73.2%26.8%
Kalshi77.3%26.3%
Polymarket US78.2%25.3%
ProphetX76.7%25.9%
Novig76.0%24.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi6:42 PM CTPolymarket US6:43 PM CTProphetX6:41 PM CTNovig6:41 PM CT
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−27373%−34077.3%−35978.2%−32976.7%−31776.0%
MILMilwaukee Bucks+27327%+28026.3%+29625.3%+28625.9%+30824.5%
SpreadCLE by 8.1
CLECleveland Cavaliers−8.1our margin−8.5 −12154.7%−8.5 −12655.7%−8.5 −11353.1%−8.5 −11152.5%
MILMilwaukee Bucks+8.1our margin+8.5 +10149.7%+8.5 +10548.7%+8.5 +10449.1%+8.5 +10848.0%
Totalwe expect 234.4
Over234.4our totalo234.5 −12154.7%o234.5 −12154.7%o234.5 −11553.6%o234.5 −11152.5%
Under234.4our totalu234.5 −10350.7%u234.5 +10149.7%u234.5 +10349.3%u234.5 +10648.5%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 8.1 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%
← CLE wins byMIL wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more63%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more47%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

234.4 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.549%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Cleveland Cavaliers
PGJames Hardenconfirmed
SGDonovan Mitchellconfirmed
SFPeyton Watsonconfirmed
PFEvan Mobleyconfirmed
CJarrett Allenconfirmed
Milwaukee Bucks
PGRyan Rollinsconfirmed
SGTyler Herroconfirmed
SFJaime Jaquez Jr.confirmed
PFKyle Kuzmaconfirmed
CMyles Turnerconfirmed

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·MIL
Oct 29 at ATL
last game
Oct 28 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 31, 2:15 PM ET
CLEJaylon Tyson · right ankle sprainOut
CLEJr., Ernest Udeh · g league - two-wayOut
CLEKhalifa Diop · g league - on assignmentOut
CLENae'Qwan Tomlin · low back stress reactionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
CLE·MIL
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.86
118.0
points / game
113.4
117.0
points allowed / game
124.2
3−2
season record
1−4
3−0
home record
1−2
0−2
away record
0−2
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
46.4
FG%
45.0
34.8
3P%
33.8
46.6
rebounds / game
49.6
26.2
assists / game
24.6
15.6
turnovers / game
17.4
48.4
points in paint / game
49.6

Rating Trend

CLE · MIL · 11 days
Cleveland CavaliersMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 2−8
Mar 17at MILCLE 123 − 116
Feb 25at MILMIL 118 − 116
Nov 17, 2025at CLECLE 118 − 106
Oct 26, 2025at CLECLE 118 − 113
Mar 9, 2025at MILCLE 112 − 100
Dec 20, 2024at CLECLE 124 − 101
Nov 4, 2024at CLECLE 116 − 114
Nov 2, 2024at MILCLE 114 − 113
Jan 26, 2024at MILCLE 112 − 100
Jan 24, 2024at MILMIL 126 − 116

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 29at ATL111 − 114L
Oct 28vs WSH121 − 111W
Oct 26vs MIN127 − 125W
Oct 24vs BKN125 − 121W
Oct 22at PHI106 − 114L
May 25vs NY93 − 130L
May 23vs NY108 − 121L
May 21at NY93 − 109L
May 19at NY104 − 115L
May 17at DET125 − 94W

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 28vs HOU100 − 132L
Oct 26vs IND110 − 102W
Oct 24at PHI116 − 127L
Oct 23vs CHI125 − 132L
Oct 21at WSH116 − 128L
Apr 12at PHI106 − 126L
Apr 10vs BKN125 − 108W
Apr 8at DET111 − 137L
Apr 7at BKN90 − 96L
Apr 5vs MEM131 − 115W