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Suns at Warriors

NBA · Monday, Nov 2 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 2

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
GS by 0.8
Expected score
GS 113.9 – 113.1 PHX
Expected total
227.0
SunsThe matchupWarriors
+107Our fair odds−107
113.1Expected points113.9
+0.01Power rating−0.13
109.3Points / game117.6
123.7Allowed / game119.4
45.7FG%45.0
31.03P%36.2
39.7Rebounds / game43.8
1−2Season record2−3
3−7Last 103−7
Mark Williams COutJimmy Butler III F · Kristaps Porzingis C
Moses Moody G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · GS chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi54.7%54.7%
Polymarket US49.7%54.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:27 AM CTPolymarket US4:27 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+10748%−12154.7%+10149.7%——
GSGolden State Warriors−10752%−12154.7%−12154.7%——
SpreadGS by 0.8
PHXPhoenix Suns+0.8our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.0
Over227.0our total————
Under227.0our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 0.8 expected
Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%
← PHX wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more43%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more29%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.568%
Total over 227.548%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerlast game
GJalen Greenlast game
FDillon Brookslast game
FMiles Bridgeslast game
CKhaman Maluachlast game
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currylast game
GBrandin Podziemskilast game
FDraymond Greenlast game
FGeorges Nianglast game
FYaxel Lendeborglast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·GS
Oct 30 vs DEN
last game
Oct 30 vs LAL
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Phoenix Suns
PHXMark Williams C · left shoulder surgery, back about Feb 3, 2027Out
PHXOso Ighodaro F · oblique strainDay-to-day
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III F · right knee surgery, back about Jan 2, 2027Out
GSKristaps Porzingis C · illness, back about Dec 1Out
GSMoses Moody G · left knee surgery, back about Dec 1Out
GSGui Santos F · left knee tendinitisDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
PHX·GS
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
109.3
points / game
117.6
123.7
points allowed / game
119.4
1−2
season record
2−3
1−0
home record
0−1
0−2
away record
2−2
L1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
3−7
45.7
FG%
45.0
31.0
3P%
36.2
39.7
rebounds / game
43.8
25.3
assists / game
25.6
15.3
turnovers / game
17.4
46.0
points in paint / game
46.4

Rating Trend

PHX · GS · 10 days
Phoenix SunsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 6−4
Oct 24at PHXPHX 131 − 122
Feb 5at PHXGS 101 − 97
Dec 20, 2025at GSGS 119 − 116
Dec 18, 2025at PHXPHX 99 − 98
Nov 4, 2025at GSGS 118 − 107
Apr 8, 2025at PHXGS 133 − 95
Jan 31, 2025at GSPHX 130 − 105
Dec 28, 2024at GSGS 109 − 105
Nov 30, 2024at PHXPHX 113 − 105
Feb 10, 2024at GSGS 113 − 112

PHX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 26at OKC114 − 125L
Oct 24vs GS131 − 122W
Oct 21at POR83 − 124L
Apr 27vs OKC122 − 131L
Apr 25vs OKC109 − 121L
Apr 22at OKC107 − 120L
Apr 19at OKC84 − 119L
Apr 12at OKC135 − 103W
Apr 10at LAL73 − 101L
Apr 8vs DAL112 − 107W

GS · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Oct 28at MIN119 − 114W
Oct 26at DEN134 − 114W
Oct 24at PHX122 − 131L
Oct 23vs MEM108 − 111L
Oct 21at LAL105 − 127L
Apr 12at LAC110 − 115L
Apr 10at SAC118 − 124L
Apr 9vs LAL103 − 119L
Apr 7vs SAC110 − 105W
Apr 5vs HOU116 − 117L