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Heat at Clippers

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 4 · 9:30 PM CT · Intuit Dome · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 4

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
LAC by 2.9
Expected score
LAC 118.0 – 115.1 MIA
Expected total
233.1
HeatThe matchupClippers
+141Our fair odds−141
115.1Expected points118.0
−0.04Power rating+0.09
113.0Points / game106.5
120.8Allowed / game108.0
45.4FG%45.5
32.03P%38.5
42.8Rebounds / game40.5
1−4Season record1−3
4−6Last 104−6
—OutBradley Beal G · Brandon Ingram F
Jordan Miller G · Max Strus G
Yanic Konan Niederhauser C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · LAC chance
Our model fair41.5%58.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+14142%————
LACLA Clippers−14158%————
SpreadLAC by 2.9
MIAMiami Heat+2.9our margin————
LACLA Clippers−2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.1
Over233.1our total————
Under233.1our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

LA Clippers by 2.9 expected
Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 3%LA Clippers by 4 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 9 points: 3%LA Clippers by 10 points: 3%LA Clippers by 11 points: 3%LA Clippers by 12 points: 3%LA Clippers by 13 points: 2%LA Clippers by 14 points: 2%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 2%LA Clippers by 17 points: 2%LA Clippers by 18 points: 2%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: 1%LA Clippers by 27 points: 1%LA Clippers by 28 points: 1%LA Clippers by 29 points: 1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%
← MIA wins byLAC wins by →
LA Clippers wins by 5 or more48%
LA Clippers wins by 10 or more33%
LA Clippers wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.1 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.548%
Total over 243.529%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Miami Heat
GKlay Thompsonlast game
GDavion Mitchelllast game
FGiannis Antetokounmpolast game
FAndrew Wigginslast game
CBam Adebayolast game
LA Clippers
GKris Dunnlast game
GDarius Garlandlast game
GKobe Sanderslast game
FDerrick Jones Jr.last game
FIsaiah Jacksonlast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·LAC
Oct 30 vs IND
last game
Oct 30 at MIN
4 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Miami Heat
MIASimone Fontecchio F · illnessDay-to-day
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal G · knee inflammation, back about Nov 8Out
LACBrandon Ingram F · right achilles surgery, back about Nov 8Out
LACJordan Miller G · shoulder surgery, back about Mar 1, 2027Out
LACMax Strus G · right foot plantar fasciitis, back about Nov 8Out
LACYanic Konan Niederhauser C · right foot surgery, back about Nov 8Out
LACRui Hachimura F · left quadriceps sorenessDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
MIA·LAC
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
113.0
points / game
106.5
120.8
points allowed / game
108.0
1−4
season record
1−3
0−3
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
0−2
W1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
4−6
45.4
FG%
45.5
32.0
3P%
38.5
42.8
rebounds / game
40.5
27.0
assists / game
25.0
14.8
turnovers / game
23.5
52.4
points in paint / game
42.0

Rating Trend

MIA · LAC · 10 days
Miami HeatLA Clippers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAC 5−5
Dec 1, 2025at MIAMIA 140 − 123
Nov 3, 2025at LACMIA 120 − 119
Mar 12, 2025at MIALAC 119 − 104
Jan 13, 2025at LACLAC 109 − 98
Feb 4, 2024at MIALAC 103 − 95
Jan 1, 2024at LACLAC 121 − 104
Jan 2, 2023at LACMIA 110 − 100
Dec 8, 2022at MIAMIA 115 − 110
Jan 28, 2022at MIAMIA 121 − 114
Nov 11, 2021at LACLAC 112 − 109

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 28at ATL129 − 117W
Oct 26vs DAL109 − 113L
Oct 24at CHA110 − 115L
Oct 23vs DET111 − 128L
Oct 21vs MIN106 − 131L
Apr 12vs ATL143 − 117W
Apr 10at WSH140 − 117W
Apr 9at TOR114 − 128L
Apr 7at TOR95 − 121L
Apr 4vs WSH152 − 136W

LAC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 28vs LAL87 − 103L
Oct 25at OKC101 − 108L
Oct 23at LAL117 − 125L
Oct 21vs SAC121 − 96W
Apr 12vs GS115 − 110W
Apr 10at POR97 − 116L
Apr 8vs OKC110 − 128L
Apr 7vs DAL116 − 103W
Apr 5at SAC138 − 109W
Apr 2vs SA99 − 118L