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Bucks at Celtics

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 4 · 6:30 PM CT · TD Garden · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 4

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
BOS by 10.6
Expected score
BOS 116.0 – 105.5 MIL
Expected total
221.5
BucksThe matchupCeltics
+314Our fair odds−314
105.5Expected points116.0
−0.86Power rating+0.77
113.4Points / game119.8
124.2Allowed / game111.8
45.0FG%46.2
33.83P%38.2
49.6Rebounds / game44.2
1−4Season record3−1
3−7Last 105−5
—OutDevin Carter G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair24.2%75.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket US48.7%93.5%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US5:12 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+31424%—+10548.7%——
BOSBoston Celtics−31476%—−142793.5%——
SpreadBOS by 10.6
MILMilwaukee Bucks+10.6our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−10.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.5
Over221.5our total————
Under221.5our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 10.6 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 52 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 51 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 50 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 52 points: <1%
← MIL wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more68%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more53%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.5 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.569%
Total over 221.550%
Total over 231.530%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Milwaukee Bucks
GTyler Herrolast game
GRyan Rollinslast game
FKyle Kuzmalast game
FJaime Jaquez Jr.last game
CMyles Turnerlast game
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitelast game
GJordan Walshlast game
FPaul Georgelast game
FJayson Tatumlast game
CMitchell Robinsonlast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·BOS
Oct 28 vs HOU
last game
Oct 30 vs CHI
6 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
BOSDevin Carter G · illnessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
MIL·BOS
−0.86
rating (0 = average)
+0.77
113.4
points / game
119.8
124.2
points allowed / game
111.8
1−4
season record
3−1
1−2
home record
3−0
0−2
away record
0−1
L1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
5−5
45.0
FG%
46.2
33.8
3P%
38.2
49.6
rebounds / game
44.2
24.6
assists / game
27.8
17.4
turnovers / game
16.0
49.6
points in paint / game
42.5

Rating Trend

MIL · BOS · 10 days
Milwaukee BucksBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 7−3
Apr 3at MILBOS 133 − 101
Mar 2at MILBOS 108 − 81
Feb 1at BOSBOS 107 − 79
Dec 11, 2025at MILMIL 116 − 101
Dec 6, 2024at BOSBOS 111 − 105
Nov 10, 2024at MILBOS 113 − 107
Oct 28, 2024at BOSBOS 119 − 108
Apr 9, 2024at MILMIL 104 − 91
Mar 20, 2024at BOSBOS 122 − 119
Jan 11, 2024at MILMIL 135 − 102

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 28vs HOU100 − 132L
Oct 26vs IND110 − 102W
Oct 24at PHI116 − 127L
Oct 23vs CHI125 − 132L
Oct 21at WSH116 − 128L
Apr 12at PHI106 − 126L
Apr 10vs BKN125 − 108W
Apr 8at DET111 − 137L
Apr 7at BKN90 − 96L
Apr 5vs MEM131 − 115W

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Oct 27vs BKN125 − 124W
Oct 26vs CHI134 − 99W
Oct 23vs NY107 − 103W
Oct 20at DET113 − 121L
May 2vs PHI100 − 109L
Apr 30at PHI93 − 106L
Apr 28vs PHI97 − 113L
Apr 26at PHI128 − 96W
Apr 24at PHI108 − 100W
Apr 21vs PHI97 − 111L