bayesRatings

Celtics at Hornets

NBA · Friday, Nov 6 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 6

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
BOS by 2.3
Expected score
BOS 108.6 – 106.2 CHA
Expected total
214.8
CelticsThe matchupHornets
−115Our fair odds+115
108.6Expected points106.2
+0.77Power rating+0.27
119.8Points / game101.0
111.8Allowed / game108.2
46.2FG%41.8
38.23P%31.0
44.2Rebounds / game47.2
3−1Season record3−2
5−5Last 106−4
Devin Carter GOutCoby White G · Grant Williams F
Kon Knueppel G · Kylan Boswell G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · CHA chance
Our model fair53.4%46.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−11553%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+11547%————
SpreadBOS by 2.3
BOSBoston Celtics−2.3our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 214.8
Over214.8our total————
Under214.8our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 2.3 expected
Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%
← BOS wins byCHA wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more46%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more32%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

214.8 expected
171 points: <1%172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: 1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 2%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 1%232 points: 1%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: <1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 204.570%
Total over 214.550%
Total over 224.530%
Total from 205 to 22440%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitelast game
GJordan Walshlast game
FPaul Georgelast game
FJayson Tatumlast game
CMitchell Robinsonlast game
Charlotte Hornets
GDennis Schroderlast game
GSion Jameslast game
FMoussa Diabatelast game
FBrandon Millerlast game
CNaz Reidlast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·CHA
Oct 30 vs CHI
last game
Oct 30 at WSH
6 days
days of rest
6 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Boston Celtics
BOSDevin Carter G · illnessOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHACoby White G · left calf strainOut
CHAGrant Williams F · right hamstringOut
CHAKon Knueppel G · left hamstringOut
CHAKylan Boswell G · right kneeOut
CHADennis Schroder G · footDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
BOS·CHA
+0.77
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
119.8
points / game
101.0
111.8
points allowed / game
108.2
3−1
season record
3−2
3−0
home record
2−1
0−1
away record
1−1
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
46.2
FG%
41.8
38.2
3P%
31.0
44.2
rebounds / game
47.2
27.8
assists / game
20.6
16.0
turnovers / game
20.0
42.5
points in paint / game
40.0

Rating Trend

BOS · CHA · 10 days
Boston CelticsCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 2−8
Apr 7at BOSBOS 113 − 102
Mar 29at CHABOS 114 − 99
Mar 4at BOSCHA 118 − 89
Apr 13, 2025at BOSBOS 93 − 86
Apr 11, 2025at BOSBOS 130 − 94
Nov 2, 2024at CHABOS 113 − 103
Nov 1, 2024at CHABOS 124 − 109
Apr 12, 2024at BOSBOS 131 − 98
Apr 1, 2024at CHABOS 118 − 104
Nov 20, 2023at CHACHA 121 − 118

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Oct 27vs BKN125 − 124W
Oct 26vs CHI134 − 99W
Oct 23vs NY107 − 103W
Oct 20at DET113 − 121L
May 2vs PHI100 − 109L
Apr 30at PHI93 − 106L
Apr 28vs PHI97 − 113L
Apr 26at PHI128 − 96W
Apr 24at PHI108 − 100W
Apr 21vs PHI97 − 111L

CHA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 28at DET89 − 97L
Oct 26vs WSH110 − 103W
Oct 24vs MIA115 − 110W
Oct 23vs ATL81 − 128L
Oct 21at BKN110 − 103W
Apr 12at NY110 − 96W
Apr 10vs DET100 − 118L
Apr 7at BOS102 − 113L
Apr 5at MIN122 − 108W
Apr 3vs IND129 − 108W