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Timberwolves at Pelicans

NBA · Friday, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 6

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
MIN by 5.1
Expected score
MIN 121.1 – 116.0 NO
Expected total
237.2
TimberwolvesThe matchupPelicans
−195Our fair odds+195
121.1Expected points116.0
+0.46Power rating−0.60
120.4Points / game119.4
107.8Allowed / game121.6
47.6FG%49.2
38.63P%30.0
51.6Rebounds / game43.0
3−2Season record1−4
4−6Last 102−8
Anthony Edwards G · Donte DiVincenzo GOutYves Missi C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · NO chance
Our model fair66.1%33.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−19566%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+19534%————
SpreadMIN by 5.1
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−5.1our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.2
Over237.2our total————
Under237.2our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 5.1 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%
← MIN wins byNO wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more54%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more39%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.2 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.567%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Minnesota Timberwolves
GAyo Dosunmulast game
GLaMelo Balllast game
FJaden McDanielslast game
FJonathan Kumingalast game
CRudy Gobertlast game
New Orleans Pelicans
GJeremiah Fearslast game
FHerbert Joneslast game
FZion Williamsonlast game
FTrey Murphy IIIlast game
FKarlo Matkoviclast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·NO
Oct 30 vs LAC
last game
Oct 29 vs SAC
6 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards G · right knee surgery, back about Dec 21Out
MINDonte DiVincenzo G · right achilles surgery, back about Apr 2, 2027Out
New Orleans Pelicans
NOYves Missi C · left knee bruiseOut
NODejounte Murray G · personalDay-to-day
NOJordan Poole G · left ankleDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
MIN·NO
+0.46
rating (0 = average)
−0.60
120.4
points / game
119.4
107.8
points allowed / game
121.6
3−2
season record
1−4
1−1
home record
1−2
2−1
away record
0−2
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
47.6
FG%
49.2
38.6
3P%
30.0
51.6
rebounds / game
43.0
27.0
assists / game
25.2
17.0
turnovers / game
17.4
48.8
points in paint / game
62.0

Rating Trend

MIN · NO · 10 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 4−6
Apr 12at MINMIN 132 − 126
Feb 6at MINNO 119 − 115
Dec 4, 2025at NOMIN 125 − 116
Dec 2, 2025at NOMIN 149 − 142
Mar 21, 2025at MINMIN 134 − 93
Mar 19, 2025at MINNO 119 − 115
Jan 7, 2025at NOMIN 104 − 97
Jan 3, 2024at MINNO 117 − 106
Dec 11, 2023at NONO 121 − 107
Nov 18, 2023at NOMIN 121 − 120

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 28vs GS114 − 119L
Oct 26at CLE125 − 127L
Oct 25vs TOR117 − 94W
Oct 23at ORL115 − 93W
Oct 21at MIA131 − 106W
May 15vs SA109 − 139L
May 12at SA97 − 126L
May 10vs SA114 − 109W
May 8vs SA108 − 115L
May 6at SA95 − 133L

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 29vs SAC132 − 120W
Oct 28vs DEN91 − 104L
Oct 24at DEN135 − 141L
Oct 23at UTAH119 − 120L
Oct 21vs IND120 − 123L
Apr 12at MIN126 − 132L
Apr 10at BOS118 − 144L
Apr 7vs UTAH156 − 137W
Apr 5vs ORL108 − 112L
Apr 3at SAC113 − 117L