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Spurs at Kings

NBA · Friday, Nov 6 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 6

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
SA by 11.0
Expected score
SA 121.0 – 110.1 SAC
Expected total
231.1
SpursThe matchupKings
−331Our fair odds+331
121.0Expected points110.1
+1.05Power rating−1.24
116.6Points / game110.2
110.0Allowed / game126.8
46.2FG%46.0
34.63P%30.4
45.0Rebounds / game41.0
3−2Season record0−5
4−6Last 102−8
Jayden Quaintance F · Tobias Harris FOutBen Simmons G · Dylan Cardwell C
Keegan Murray F · Maxime Raynaud C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · SAC chance
Our model fair76.8%23.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket US94.4%47.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US5:27 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−33177%—−168394.4%——
SACSacramento Kings+33123%—+11047.7%——
SpreadSA by 11.0
SASan Antonio Spurs−11our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+11our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.1
Over231.1our total————
Under231.1our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 11.0 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 4%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 4%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 1%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%
← SA wins bySAC wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more71%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more54%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.1 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.548%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxlast game
GDevin Vasselllast game
GStephon Castlelast game
GDylan Harperlast game
FVictor Wembanyamalast game
Sacramento Kings
GZach LaVinelast game
GDarius Acuff Jr.last game
FDomantas Sabonislast game
FDe'Andre Hunterlast game
FPrecious Achiuwalast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·SAC
Oct 28 at UTAH
last game
Oct 29 at NO
8 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
San Antonio Spurs
SAJayden Quaintance F · right knee surgery, back about Dec 1Out
SATobias Harris F · left calf strainOut
Sacramento Kings
SACBen Simmons G · achilles ruptured, back about Oct 1, 2027Out
SACDylan Cardwell C · left calf strain, back about Nov 6Out
SACKeegan Murray F · ankle, back about Nov 6Out
SACMaxime Raynaud C · right knee dislocated, back about Nov 10Out

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
SA·SAC
+1.05
rating (0 = average)
−1.24
116.6
points / game
110.2
110.0
points allowed / game
126.8
3−2
season record
0−5
1−2
home record
0−2
2−0
away record
0−3
W3
streak
L5
4−6
last 10
2−8
46.2
FG%
46.0
34.6
3P%
30.4
45.0
rebounds / game
41.0
28.2
assists / game
24.4
13.2
turnovers / game
17.0
54.8
points in paint / game
53.2

Rating Trend

SA · SAC · 10 days
San Antonio SpursSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 4−6
Oct 27at SASA 130 − 103
Mar 17at SACSA 132 − 104
Feb 21at SASA 139 − 122
Nov 16, 2025at SASA 123 − 110
Mar 7, 2025at SACSAC 127 − 109
Dec 6, 2024at SASAC 140 − 113
Dec 1, 2024at SACSA 127 − 125
Nov 11, 2024at SASA 116 − 96
Mar 7, 2024at SACSAC 131 − 129
Feb 22, 2024at SACSAC 127 − 122

SA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Oct 28at UTAH117 − 111W
Oct 27vs SAC130 − 103W
Oct 24at DAL122 − 106W
Oct 23vs HOU110 − 114L
Oct 20vs OKC104 − 116L
Jun 13vs NY90 − 94L
Jun 10at NY106 − 107L
Jun 8at NY115 − 111W
Jun 5vs NY104 − 105L
Jun 3vs NY95 − 105L

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Oct 29at NO120 − 132L
Oct 27at SA103 − 130L
Oct 25vs MEM112 − 123L
Oct 23vs POR120 − 128L
Oct 21at LAC96 − 121L
Apr 12at POR110 − 122L
Apr 10vs GS124 − 118W
Apr 7at GS105 − 110L
Apr 5vs LAC109 − 138L
Apr 3vs NO117 − 113W