bayesRatings

Ravens at Vikings

NFL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 12:00 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Final BAL 27 – MIN 19
← NFL / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BAL3610827
MIN733619
Team box
BAL·MIN
321
total yards
365
169
passing yards
245
152
rushing yards
120
23
first downs
18
6-15
third downs
3-14
0
turnovers
3
32:35
time of possession
27:25
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Lamar JacksonBAL17/2917610
J.J. McCarthyMIN20/4224812
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Derrick HenryBAL20750
J.J. McCarthyMIN5480
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Zay FlowersBAL4750
Jalen NailorMIN51241

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +14
BAL +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 7 · BAL 14lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 45%, MIN 55% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 0.1
Expected score
MIN 24.1 – 24.0 BAL
Expected total
48.1
RavensThe matchupVikings
+123Our fair odds−123
24.0Expected points24.1
+0.32Power rating+0.25
25.2Points / game22.8
27.0Allowed / game23.2
318Total yards / game292
5.9Yards / play5.0
183Passing yards / game192
3−5Season record4−4
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair44.8%55.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Ravens+12345%————
MINMinnesota Vikings−12355%————
SpreadMIN by 0.1
BALBaltimore Ravens+0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Vikings−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.1
Over48.1our total————
Under48.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 0.1 expected
Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 9%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 7%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%
← BAL wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more43%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more27%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more20%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.1 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.566%
Total over 48.546%
Total over 55.529%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 76% completions, 213 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted
MINJ.J. McCarthy · last 3 games: 58% completions, 148 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·MIN
Oct 30, 2025 at MIA
last game
Nov 2, 2025 at DET
9 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
BAL·MIN
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
25.2
points / game
22.8
27.0
points allowed / game
23.2
3−5
season record
4−4
2−3
home record
1−2
1−2
away record
3−2
W2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
318
total yards / game
292
5.9
yards / play
5.0
183
passing yards / game
192
136
rushing yards / game
100
18.1
first downs / game
17.8
1.2
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

BAL · MIN · 26 days
Baltimore RavensMinnesota Vikings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · MIN 0−1
Nov 7, 2021at BALBAL 34 − 31

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Oct 30, 2025at MIA28 − 6W
Oct 26, 2025vs CHI30 − 16W
Oct 12, 2025vs LAR3 − 17L
Oct 5, 2025vs HOU10 − 44L
Sep 28, 2025at KC20 − 37L
Sep 22, 2025vs DET30 − 38L
Sep 14, 2025vs CLE41 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025at BUF40 − 41L
Jan 19, 2025at BUF25 − 27L
Jan 11, 2025vs PIT28 − 14W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 2, 2025at DET27 − 24W
Oct 23, 2025at LAC10 − 37L
Oct 19, 2025vs PHI22 − 28L
Oct 5, 2025at CLE21 − 17W
Sep 28, 2025at PIT21 − 24L
Sep 21, 2025vs CIN48 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025vs ATL6 − 22L
Sep 8, 2025at CHI27 − 24W
Jan 13, 2025at LAR9 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at DET9 − 31L