bayesRatings

Bills at Dolphins

NFL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Final BUF 13 – MIA 30
← NFL / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BUF0001313
MIA7901430
Team box
BUF·MIA
376
total yards
370
289
passing yards
173
87
rushing yards
197
20
first downs
19
5-15
third downs
3-9
3
turnovers
2
31:23
time of possession
28:37
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh AllenBUF28/4030621
Tua TagovailoaMIA15/2117322
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF13530
De'Von AchaneMIA221742
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Khalil ShakirBUF7580
Jaylen WaddleMIA5841

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +17
BUF +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 17 · BUF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 71%, MIA 29% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 9.6
Expected score
BUF 29.4 – 19.8 MIA
Expected total
49.1
BillsThe matchupDolphins
−248Our fair odds+248
29.4Expected points19.8
+0.79Power rating−0.46
29.4Points / game20.0
20.9Allowed / game27.0
386Total yards / game291
6.1Yards / play5.2
224Passing yards / game194
6−2Season record2−7
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · MIA chance
Our model fair71.3%28.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills−24871%————
MIAMiami Dolphins+24829%————
SpreadBUF by 9.6
BUFBuffalo Bills−9.6our margin————
MIAMiami Dolphins+9.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.1
Over49.1our total————
Under49.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 9.6 expected
Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 7%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 1%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%
← BUF wins byMIA wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more71%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more56%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more49%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.1 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.566%
Total over 49.546%
Total over 56.530%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 70% completions, 205 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 64% completions, 189 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·MIA
Nov 2, 2025 vs KC
last game
Oct 30, 2025 vs BAL
6 days
days of rest
9 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
BUF·MIA
+0.79
rating (0 = average)
−0.46
29.4
points / game
20.0
20.9
points allowed / game
27.0
6−2
season record
2−7
4−1
home record
1−3
2−1
away record
1−4
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
2−8
386
total yards / game
291
6.1
yards / play
5.2
224
passing yards / game
194
162
rushing yards / game
97
23.1
first downs / game
17.0
0.8
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

BUF · MIA · 26 days
Buffalo BillsMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 1−9
Sep 18, 2025at BUFBUF 31 − 21
Nov 3, 2024at BUFBUF 30 − 27
Sep 12, 2024at MIABUF 31 − 10
Jan 7, 2024at MIABUF 21 − 14
Oct 1, 2023at BUFBUF 48 − 20
Jan 15, 2023at BUFBUF 34 − 31post
Dec 17, 2022at BUFBUF 32 − 29
Sep 25, 2022at MIAMIA 21 − 19
Oct 31, 2021at BUFBUF 26 − 11
Sep 19, 2021at MIABUF 35 − 0

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Nov 2, 2025vs KC28 − 21W
Oct 26, 2025at CAR40 − 9W
Oct 13, 2025at ATL14 − 24L
Oct 5, 2025vs NE20 − 23L
Sep 28, 2025vs NO31 − 19W
Sep 18, 2025vs MIA31 − 21W
Sep 14, 2025at NYJ30 − 10W
Sep 7, 2025vs BAL41 − 40W
Jan 26, 2025at KC29 − 32L
Jan 19, 2025vs BAL27 − 25W

MIA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 30, 2025vs BAL6 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at ATL34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at CLE6 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs LAC27 − 29L
Oct 5, 2025at CAR24 − 27L
Sep 29, 2025vs NYJ27 − 21W
Sep 18, 2025at BUF21 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NE27 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at IND8 − 33L
Jan 5, 2025at NYJ20 − 32L