bayesRatings

Browns at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final CLE 20 – NYJ 27
← NFL / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE7100320
NYJ14301027
Team box
CLE·NYJ
278
total yards
169
120
passing yards
42
158
rushing yards
127
23
first downs
12
6-16
third downs
3-11
0
turnovers
1
34:04
time of possession
25:56
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dillon GabrielCLE17/3216720
Justin FieldsNYJ6/115411
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Quinshon JudkinsCLE22750
Breece HallNYJ21830
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jerry JeudyCLE6781
Breece HallNYJ1421

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYJ +10
CLE +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYJ 10 · CLE 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 42%, NYJ 58% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
NYJ by 5.5
Expected score
NYJ 23.1 – 17.6 CLE
Expected total
40.7
BrownsThe matchupJets
+136Our fair odds−136
17.6Expected points23.1
−0.75Power rating−0.71
15.8Points / game21.0
23.0Allowed / game27.6
264Total yards / game300
4.1Yards / play4.8
174Passing yards / game156
2−6Season record1−7
2−8Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair42.3%57.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns+13642%————
NYJNew York Jets−13658%————
SpreadNYJ by 5.5
CLECleveland Browns+5.5our margin————
NYJNew York Jets−5.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.7
Over40.7our total————
Under40.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Jets by 5.5 expected
Cleveland Browns by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 7%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%New York Jets by 2 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 7%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 4%New York Jets by 7 points: 4%New York Jets by 8 points: 3%New York Jets by 9 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 2%New York Jets by 11 points: 1%New York Jets by 12 points: 2%New York Jets by 13 points: 2%New York Jets by 14 points: 2%New York Jets by 15 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 17 points: 3%New York Jets by 18 points: 2%New York Jets by 19 points: 1%New York Jets by 20 points: 1%New York Jets by 21 points: 2%New York Jets by 22 points: 1%New York Jets by 23 points: 1%New York Jets by 24 points: 2%New York Jets by 25 points: 1%New York Jets by 26 points: 1%New York Jets by 27 points: 1%New York Jets by 28 points: 1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: 1%New York Jets by 32 points: 1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: 1%New York Jets by 35 points: 1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 45 points: <1%
← CLE wins byNYJ wins by →
New York Jets wins by 3 or more58%
New York Jets wins by 7 or more43%
New York Jets wins by 10 or more34%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.7 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.569%
Total over 40.549%
Total over 47.529%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CLEDillon Gabriel · last 3 games: 60% completions, 164 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted
NYJJustin Fields · last 3 games: 59% completions, 112 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·NYJ
Oct 26, 2025 at NE
last game
Oct 26, 2025 at CIN
13 days
days of rest
13 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
CLE·NYJ
−0.75
rating (0 = average)
−0.71
15.8
points / game
21.0
23.0
points allowed / game
27.6
2−6
season record
1−7
2−2
home record
0−5
0−4
away record
1−2
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
2−8
264
total yards / game
300
4.1
yards / play
4.8
174
passing yards / game
156
90
rushing yards / game
144
16.8
first downs / game
18.5
1.2
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

CLE · NYJ · 26 days
Cleveland BrownsNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · NYJ 1−1
Dec 28, 2023at CLECLE 37 − 20
Sep 18, 2022at CLENYJ 31 − 30

CLE · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 26, 2025at NE13 − 32L
Oct 19, 2025vs MIA31 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025at PIT9 − 23L
Oct 5, 2025vs MIN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at DET10 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs GB13 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at BAL17 − 41L
Sep 7, 2025vs CIN16 − 17L
Jan 4, 2025at BAL10 − 35L
Dec 29, 2024vs MIA3 − 20L

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 26, 2025at CIN39 − 38W
Oct 19, 2025vs CAR6 − 13L
Oct 12, 2025vs DEN11 − 13L
Oct 5, 2025vs DAL22 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at MIA21 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TB27 − 29L
Sep 14, 2025vs BUF10 − 30L
Sep 7, 2025vs PIT32 − 34L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIA32 − 20W
Dec 29, 2024at BUF14 − 40L