bayesRatings

Rams at 49ers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 3:25 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · Final LAR 42 – SF 26
← NFL / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR14771442
SF0771226
Team box
LAR·SF
401
total yards
393
275
passing yards
319
126
rushing yards
74
31
first downs
24
5-9
third downs
3-8
0
turnovers
2
32:32
time of possession
27:28
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR24/3628040
Mac JonesSF33/3931931
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyren WilliamsLAR14732
Brian Robinson Jr.SF8411
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Davante AdamsLAR6771
George KittleSF9841

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +22
LAR +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SF 0 · LAR 22lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 53%, SF 47% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
LAR by 3.2
Expected score
LAR 22.7 – 19.5 SF
Expected total
42.2
RamsThe matchup49ers
−114Our fair odds+114
22.7Expected points19.5
+0.60Power rating+0.17
26.1Points / game21.6
15.9Allowed / game20.9
370Total yards / game352
5.8Yards / play5.4
258Passing yards / game255
6−2Season record6−3
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · SF chance
Our model fair53.4%46.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams−11453%————
SFSan Francisco 49ers+11447%————
SpreadLAR by 3.2
LARLos Angeles Rams−3.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco 49ers+3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.2
Over42.2our total————
Under42.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 3.2 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 9%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 7%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%
← LAR wins bySF wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more55%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more37%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.2 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.568%
Total over 42.547%
Total over 49.528%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 68% completions, 215 yds/game, 10 TD, 0 INTstarted
SFMac Jones · last 3 games: 67% completions, 193 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·SF
Nov 2, 2025 vs NO
last game
Nov 2, 2025 at NYG
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
LAR·SF
+0.60
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
26.1
points / game
21.6
15.9
points allowed / game
20.9
6−2
season record
6−3
3−1
home record
2−1
3−1
away record
4−2
W3
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
370
total yards / game
352
5.8
yards / play
5.4
258
passing yards / game
255
112
rushing yards / game
97
23.0
first downs / game
21.3
0.9
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

LAR · SF · 26 days
Los Angeles RamsSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 6−4
Oct 2, 2025at LARSF 26 − 23
Dec 12, 2024at SFLAR 12 − 6
Sep 22, 2024at LARLAR 27 − 24
Jan 7, 2024at SFLAR 21 − 20
Sep 17, 2023at LARSF 30 − 23
Oct 30, 2022at LARSF 31 − 14
Oct 3, 2022at SFSF 24 − 9
Jan 30, 2022at LARLAR 20 − 17post
Jan 9, 2022at LARSF 27 − 24
Nov 15, 2021at SFSF 31 − 10

LAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Nov 2, 2025vs NO34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at JAX35 − 7W
Oct 12, 2025at BAL17 − 3W
Oct 2, 2025vs SF23 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at PHI26 − 33L
Sep 14, 2025at TEN33 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025vs HOU14 − 9W
Jan 19, 2025at PHI22 − 28L
Jan 13, 2025vs MIN27 − 9W

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 2, 2025at NYG34 − 24W
Oct 26, 2025at HOU15 − 26L
Oct 19, 2025vs ATL20 − 10W
Oct 12, 2025at TB19 − 30L
Oct 2, 2025at LAR26 − 23W
Sep 28, 2025vs JAX21 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs ARI16 − 15W
Sep 14, 2025at NO26 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at SEA17 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025at ARI24 − 47L