bayesRatings

Giants at Bears

NFL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 12:00 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final NYG 20 – CHI 24
← NFL / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYG0107320
CHI7031424
Team box
NYG·CHI
431
total yards
391
262
passing yards
220
169
rushing yards
171
21
first downs
23
5-14
third downs
3-11
1
turnovers
0
31:18
time of possession
28:42
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jaxson DartNYG19/2924200
Caleb WilliamsCHI20/3622010
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG14710
D'Andre SwiftCHI13800
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Darius SlaytonNYG4890
Rome OdunzeCHI6861

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +10
NYG +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 7 · NYG 10lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYG 30%, CHI 70% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
CHI by 8.2
Expected score
CHI 28.7 – 20.5 NYG
Expected total
49.2
GiantsThe matchupBears
+236Our fair odds−236
20.5Expected points28.7
−0.70Power rating−0.07
21.9Points / game26.9
27.7Allowed / game28.4
322Total yards / game379
5.1Yards / play5.9
204Passing yards / game234
2−7Season record5−3
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYG chance · CHI chance
Our model fair29.8%70.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYGNew York Giants+23630%————
CHIChicago Bears−23670%————
SpreadCHI by 8.2
NYGNew York Giants+8.2our margin————
CHIChicago Bears−8.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.2
Over49.2our total————
Under49.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bears by 8.2 expected
New York Giants by 47 points: <1%New York Giants by 46 points: <1%New York Giants by 45 points: <1%New York Giants by 44 points: <1%New York Giants by 43 points: <1%New York Giants by 42 points: <1%New York Giants by 41 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: <1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 21 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: <1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 18 points: <1%New York Giants by 17 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: <1%New York Giants by 14 points: 2%New York Giants by 13 points: <1%New York Giants by 12 points: <1%New York Giants by 11 points: <1%New York Giants by 10 points: 2%New York Giants by 9 points: <1%New York Giants by 8 points: 1%New York Giants by 7 points: 3%New York Giants by 6 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 3 points: 6%New York Giants by 2 points: 1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 32 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 47 points: <1%
← NYG wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more66%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more51%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more42%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.2 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.566%
Total over 49.546%
Total over 56.530%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYGJaxson Dart · last 3 games: 59% completions, 222 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 61% completions, 246 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYG·CHI
Nov 2, 2025 vs SF
last game
Nov 2, 2025 at CIN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
NYG·CHI
−0.70
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
21.9
points / game
26.9
27.7
points allowed / game
28.4
2−7
season record
5−3
2−2
home record
2−1
0−5
away record
3−2
L3
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
322
total yards / game
379
5.1
yards / play
5.9
204
passing yards / game
234
118
rushing yards / game
145
20.4
first downs / game
20.6
1.0
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

NYG · CHI · 26 days
New York GiantsChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CHI 1−1
Oct 2, 2022at NYGNYG 20 − 12
Jan 2, 2022at CHICHI 29 − 3

NYG · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Nov 2, 2025vs SF24 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025at PHI20 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025at DEN32 − 33L
Oct 9, 2025vs PHI34 − 17W
Oct 5, 2025at NO14 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs LAC21 − 18W
Sep 21, 2025vs KC9 − 22L
Sep 14, 2025at DAL37 − 40L
Sep 7, 2025at WSH6 − 21L
Jan 5, 2025at PHI13 − 20L

CHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 2, 2025at CIN47 − 42W
Oct 26, 2025at BAL16 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025vs NO26 − 14W
Oct 13, 2025at WSH25 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at LV25 − 24W
Sep 21, 2025vs DAL31 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025at DET21 − 52L
Sep 8, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at GB24 − 22W
Dec 26, 2024vs SEA3 − 6L