bayesRatings

76ers at Pacers

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 28 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final PHI 114 – IND 109
← NBA / Oct 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI25371339114
IND25273621109
Team box
PHI·IND
40-87
field goals
36-87
13-36
3-pointers
9-36
21-24
free throws
28-35
45
rebounds
47
23
assists
30
16
turnovers
15
36
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI362754
Pascal SiakamIND3426113
Joel EmbiidPHI3921112
Jaylen BrownPHI3420102
Anfernee SimonsPHI272031
Andrew NembhardIND3518314

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +15
PHI +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 13 · PHI 15lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 71%, IND 29% · Updated Oct 28

Expected margin
PHI by 7.5
Expected score
PHI 120.3 – 112.8 IND
Expected total
233.1
76ersThe matchupPacers
−239Our fair odds+239
120.3Expected points112.8
+0.15Power rating−0.80
110.0Points / game116.5
107.0Allowed / game115.0
42.2FG%48.8
30.53P%32.0
41.5Rebounds / game43.2
3−1Season record2−2
5−5Last 103−7
Ariel Hukporti · Dominick Barlow
Jabari Walker · Tacko FallOutBen Sheppard · Ivica Zubac
Johnny Furphy · T.J. McConnell
Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · IND chance
Our model fair70.5%29.5%
Kalshi72.4%31.5%
Polymarket US72.4%31.5%
ProphetX71.6%30.8%
Novig70.5%30.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 5:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 5:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 5:59 PM CT
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−23971%−26372.4%−26372.4%−25271.6%−23970.5%
INDIndiana Pacers+23929%+21831.5%+21831.5%+22430.8%+23330.0%
SpreadPHI by 7.5
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−7.5our margin−7.5 −10751.8%−7.5 −10751.7%−7.5 −10551.2%−7.5 +10249.5%
INDIndiana Pacers+7.5our margin+7.5 −11252.7%+7.5 −11252.7%+7.5 −10751.7%+7.5 −10451.0%
Totalwe expect 233.1
Over233.1our totalo233.5 −11653.7%o233.5 −11252.7%o233.5 −11152.7%o233.5 −10852.0%
Under233.1our totalu233.5 −10751.8%u233.5 −10751.7%u233.5 +10149.8%u233.5 +10648.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia 76ers by 7.5 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%
← PHI wins byIND wins by →
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 5 or more61%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 10 or more45%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.1 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.548%
Total over 243.529%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GJaylen Brownstarted
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
Indiana Pacers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·IND
Oct 25 vs DET
last game
Oct 26 at MIL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 6:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIAriel Hukporti · right achilles tendon rupture / tearOut
PHIDominick Barlow · low back stress reactionOut
PHIJabari Walker · left knee sorenessOut
PHITacko Fall · left quadriceps strainOut
Indiana Pacers
INDBen Sheppard · left meniscus tearOut
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl repair / surgeryOut
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · left hamstring tightness / sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
PHI·IND
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.80
110.0
points / game
116.5
107.0
points allowed / game
115.0
3−1
season record
2−2
2−1
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
2−1
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
42.2
FG%
48.8
30.5
3P%
32.0
41.5
rebounds / game
43.2
25.0
assists / game
29.2
12.8
turnovers / game
15.5
45.5
points in paint / game
57.0

Rating Trend

PHI · IND · 8 days
Philadelphia 76ersIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 5−5
Apr 10at INDPHI 105 − 94
Feb 24at INDPHI 135 − 114
Jan 19at PHIPHI 113 − 104
Dec 12, 2025at PHIPHI 115 − 105
Mar 14, 2025at PHIIND 112 − 100
Jan 18, 2025at INDIND 115 − 102
Dec 13, 2024at PHIIND 121 − 107
Oct 27, 2024at INDPHI 118 − 114
Jan 25, 2024at INDIND 134 − 122
Nov 14, 2023at PHIIND 132 − 126

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 25vs DET93 − 106L
Oct 24vs MIL127 − 116W
Oct 22vs CLE114 − 106W
Oct 20at NY106 − 100W
May 10vs NY114 − 144L
May 8vs NY94 − 108L
May 6at NY102 − 108L
May 4at NY98 − 137L
May 2at BOS109 − 100W
Apr 30vs BOS106 − 93W

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 26at MIL102 − 110L
Oct 25at BKN136 − 109W
Oct 23vs DAL105 − 121L
Oct 21at NO123 − 120W
Apr 12vs DET121 − 133L
Apr 10vs PHI94 − 105L
Apr 9at BKN123 − 94W
Apr 7vs MIN104 − 124L
Apr 5at CLE108 − 117L
Apr 3at CHA108 − 129L