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Thunder at Rockets

NBA · Saturday, Oct 31 · 7:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston)
← NBA / Oct 31

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
HOU by 1.6
Expected score
HOU 110.4 – 108.8 OKC
Expected total
219.2
ThunderThe matchupRockets
+120Our fair odds−120
108.8Expected points110.4
+1.20Power rating+0.66
108.2Points / game121.0
104.6Allowed / game110.0
44.0FG%50.0
31.63P%37.2
46.0Rebounds / game45.5
4−1Season record5−1
6−4Last 107−3
Alex Caruso · Cason Wallace
Chet Holmgren · Jalen Williams
Nikola TopicOut (5 each)Fred VanVleet · Julian Phillips
Quadir Copeland · Reed Sheppard
Steven Adams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · HOU chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket US45.7%58.7%
ProphetX45.2%57.0%
Novig44.5%56.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi3:22 PM CTPolymarket US3:21 PM CTProphetX3:20 PM CTNovig3:20 PM CT
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder+12046%+11945.7%+11945.7%+12145.2%+12544.5%
HOUHouston Rockets−12054%−14258.7%−14258.7%−13357.0%−12756.0%
SpreadHOU by 1.6
OKCOklahoma City Thunder+1.6our margin+2.5 −11252.7%+2.5 −11252.7%+2.5 −10952.2%+2.5 −10651.5%
HOUHouston Rockets−1.6our margin−2.5 −10751.8%−2.5 −10751.7%−2.5 −10150.3%−2.5 +10249.5%
Totalwe expect 219.2
Over219.2our totalo218.5 −12154.7%o218.5 −12154.7%o218.5 −11453.3%o218.5 −11152.5%
Under219.2our totalu218.5 +10149.7%u218.5 +10149.7%u218.5 +10548.9%u218.5 +10848.0%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 1.6 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%
← OKC wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more45%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more30%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

219.2 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 209.569%
Total over 219.549%
Total over 229.529%
Total from 210 to 22939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Oklahoma City Thunder
PGShai Gilgeous-Alexanderexpected
SGJared McCainexpected
SFAjay Mitchellexpected
PFKenrich Williamsexpected
CIsaiah Hartensteinexpected
Houston Rockets
PGMarcus Smartexpected
SGAmen Thompsonexpected
SFKevin Durantexpected
PFJabari Smith Jr.expected
CAlperen Sengunexpected

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·HOU
Oct 28 at DAL
last game
Oct 30 at DAL
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · right ankle sprainOut
OKCCason Wallace · left shoulder labral tearOut
OKCChet Holmgren · right knee patellar tendinitisOut
OKCJalen Williams · left ankle surgeryOut
OKCNikola Topic · low back surgeryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right knee surgeryOut
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee injury managementOut
HOUJulian Phillips · g league - two-wayOut
HOUQuadir Copeland · g league - two-wayOut
HOUReed Sheppard · low back sorenessOut
HOUSteven Adams · right soleus strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
OKC·HOU
+1.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
108.2
points / game
121.0
104.6
points allowed / game
110.0
4−1
season record
5−1
3−0
home record
2−0
1−1
away record
3−1
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
44.0
FG%
50.0
31.6
3P%
37.2
46.0
rebounds / game
45.5
22.0
assists / game
28.0
14.8
turnovers / game
16.2
49.2
points in paint / game
50.0

Rating Trend

OKC · HOU · 11 days
Oklahoma City ThunderHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
Feb 7at OKCHOU 112 − 106
Jan 15at HOUOKC 111 − 91
Oct 21, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 124
Apr 4, 2025at HOUHOU 125 − 111
Mar 3, 2025at OKCOKC 137 − 128
Dec 14, 2024at OKCOKC 111 − 96
Dec 1, 2024at HOUHOU 119 − 116
Nov 8, 2024at OKCOKC 126 − 107
Mar 27, 2024at OKCHOU 132 − 126
Feb 27, 2024at OKCOKC 112 − 95

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 28at DAL96 − 120L
Oct 26vs PHX125 − 114W
Oct 25vs LAC108 − 101W
Oct 22vs DEN96 − 84W
Oct 20at SA116 − 104W
May 30vs SA103 − 111L
May 28at SA91 − 118L
May 26vs SA127 − 114W
May 24at SA82 − 103L
May 22at SA123 − 108W

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 30at DAL111 − 116L
Oct 28at MIL132 − 100W
Oct 26vs ATL120 − 110W
Oct 24at ATL121 − 114W
Oct 23at SA114 − 110W
Oct 21vs DAL128 − 110W
May 1vs LAL78 − 98L
Apr 29at LAL99 − 93W
Apr 26vs LAL115 − 96W
Apr 24vs LAL108 − 112L