bayesRatings

Rockets at Mavericks

NBA · Friday, Oct 30 · 7:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final HOU 111 – DAL 116
← NBA / Oct 30

Box score and game flow are added the next morning.

Final · our forecast was HOU 63%, DAL 37% · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
HOU by 5.6
Expected score
HOU 115.5 – 109.9 DAL
Expected total
225.4
RocketsThe matchupMavericks
−169Our fair odds+169
115.5Expected points109.9
+0.75Power rating−0.34
123.0Points / game114.0
108.8Allowed / game112.0
51.6FG%49.2
39.83P%35.2
45.0Rebounds / game44.2
5−0Season record3−2
7−3Last 105−5
Alperen Sengun · Julian Phillips
Quadir Copeland · Reed Sheppard
Steven AdamsOutDereck Lively II · Santi Aldama
Sergio de Larrea · Tarik Biberovic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · DAL chance
Our model fair62.8%37.2%
Kalshi67.6%36.6%
Polymarket US67.6%36.6%
ProphetX66.9%35.8%
Novig66.0%34.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:58 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:58 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:59 PM CT
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−16963%−20867.6%−20867.6%−20266.9%−19466.0%
DALDallas Mavericks+16937%+17336.6%+17336.6%+17935.8%+19034.5%
SpreadHOU by 5.6
HOUHouston Rockets−5.6our margin−5.5 −11252.7%−5.5 −11653.7%−5.5 −10952.2%−5.5 −10451.0%
DALDallas Mavericks+5.6our margin+5.5 −10751.8%+5.5 −10350.7%+5.5 −10250.5%+5.5 +10249.5%
Totalwe expect 225.4
Over225.4our totalo223.5 −11653.7%o223.5 −11653.7%o223.5 −11052.4%o223.5 −10651.5%
Under225.4our totalu223.5 −10350.7%u223.5 −10350.7%u223.5 −10050.0%u223.5 +10449.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 5.6 expected
Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%
← HOU wins byDAL wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more56%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more40%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.4 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GFred VanVleetstarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CClint Capelastarted
Dallas Mavericks
GKyrie Irvingstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·DAL
Oct 28 at MIL
last game
Oct 28 vs OKC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 30, 6:45 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUAlperen Sengun · low back sorenessOut
HOUJulian Phillips · g league - two-wayOut
HOUQuadir Copeland · g league - two-wayOut
HOUReed Sheppard · low back sorenessOut
HOUSteven Adams · right soleus strainOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot surgeryOut
DALSanti Aldama · right knee surgeryOut
DALSergio de Larrea · right knee sprainOut
DALTarik Biberovic · right heel bursitisOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
HOU·DAL
+0.75
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
123.0
points / game
114.0
108.8
points allowed / game
112.0
5−0
season record
3−2
2−0
home record
1−1
3−0
away record
2−1
W5
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
5−5
51.6
FG%
49.2
39.8
3P%
35.2
45.0
rebounds / game
44.2
28.4
assists / game
27.6
16.8
turnovers / game
17.0
50.8
points in paint / game
50.8

Rating Trend

HOU · DAL · 10 days
Houston RocketsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 4−6
Oct 21at HOUHOU 128 − 110
Jan 31at HOUHOU 111 − 107
Jan 3at DALDAL 110 − 104
Dec 6, 2025at DALDAL 122 − 109
Nov 3, 2025at HOUHOU 110 − 102
Mar 14, 2025at HOUHOU 133 − 96
Feb 8, 2025at DALDAL 116 − 105
Jan 1, 2025at HOUHOU 110 − 99
Oct 31, 2024at DALHOU 108 − 102
Apr 7, 2024at DALDAL 147 − 136

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Oct 28at MIL132 − 100W
Oct 26vs ATL120 − 110W
Oct 24at ATL121 − 114W
Oct 23at SA114 − 110W
Oct 21vs DAL128 − 110W
May 1vs LAL78 − 98L
Apr 29at LAL99 − 93W
Apr 26vs LAL115 − 96W
Apr 24vs LAL108 − 112L
Apr 21at LAL94 − 101L

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 28vs OKC120 − 96W
Oct 26at MIA113 − 109W
Oct 24vs SA106 − 122L
Oct 23at IND121 − 105W
Oct 21at HOU110 − 128L
Apr 12vs CHI149 − 128W
Apr 10at SA120 − 139L
Apr 8at PHX107 − 112L
Apr 7at LAC103 − 116L
Apr 5vs LAL134 − 128W