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Celtics at Rockets

NBA · Monday, Nov 2 · 7:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 2

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
HOU by 2.8
Expected score
HOU 110.0 – 107.2 BOS
Expected total
217.2
CelticsThe matchupRockets
+145Our fair odds−145
107.2Expected points110.0
+0.77Power rating+0.75
119.8Points / game123.0
111.8Allowed / game108.8
46.2FG%51.6
38.23P%39.8
44.2Rebounds / game45.0
3−1Season record5−0
5−5Last 107−3
Devin Carter GOutMarcus Smart G · Reed Sheppard G
Steven Adams C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · HOU chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket US41.7%63.6%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:27 AM CTPolymarket US4:27 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics+14541%+13442.7%+14041.7%——
HOUHouston Rockets−14559%−16862.7%−17563.6%——
SpreadHOU by 2.8
BOSBoston Celtics+2.8our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 217.2
Over217.2our total————
Under217.2our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 2.8 expected
Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%
← BOS wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more48%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more33%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

217.2 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 207.569%
Total over 217.549%
Total over 227.529%
Total from 208 to 22739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitelast game
GJordan Walshlast game
FPaul Georgelast game
FJayson Tatumlast game
CMitchell Robinsonlast game
Houston Rockets
GFred VanVleetlast game
GAmen Thompsonlast game
FKevin Durantlast game
FJabari Smith Jr.last game
FTari Easonlast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·HOU
Oct 30 vs CHI
last game
Oct 30 at DAL
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Boston Celtics
BOSDevin Carter G · illnessOut
Houston Rockets
HOUMarcus Smart G · left forearm strainOut
HOUReed Sheppard G · backOut
HOUSteven Adams C · right calf strain, back about Nov 2Out
HOUAlperen Sengun C · back sorenessDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
BOS·HOU
+0.77
rating (0 = average)
+0.75
119.8
points / game
123.0
111.8
points allowed / game
108.8
3−1
season record
5−0
3−0
home record
2−0
0−1
away record
3−0
W3
streak
W5
5−5
last 10
7−3
46.2
FG%
51.6
38.2
3P%
39.8
44.2
rebounds / game
45.0
27.8
assists / game
28.4
16.0
turnovers / game
16.8
42.5
points in paint / game
50.8

Rating Trend

BOS · HOU · 10 days
Boston CelticsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 3−7
Feb 4at HOUBOS 114 − 93
Nov 1, 2025at BOSHOU 128 − 101
Jan 27, 2025at BOSHOU 114 − 112
Jan 3, 2025at HOUBOS 109 − 86
Jan 21, 2024at HOUBOS 116 − 107
Jan 13, 2024at BOSBOS 145 − 113
Mar 13, 2023at HOUHOU 111 − 109
Dec 27, 2022at BOSBOS 126 − 102
Nov 22, 2021at BOSBOS 108 − 90
Oct 24, 2021at HOUBOS 107 − 97

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Oct 27vs BKN125 − 124W
Oct 26vs CHI134 − 99W
Oct 23vs NY107 − 103W
Oct 20at DET113 − 121L
May 2vs PHI100 − 109L
Apr 30at PHI93 − 106L
Apr 28vs PHI97 − 113L
Apr 26at PHI128 − 96W
Apr 24at PHI108 − 100W
Apr 21vs PHI97 − 111L

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Oct 28at MIL132 − 100W
Oct 26vs ATL120 − 110W
Oct 24at ATL121 − 114W
Oct 23at SA114 − 110W
Oct 21vs DAL128 − 110W
May 1vs LAL78 − 98L
Apr 29at LAL99 − 93W
Apr 26vs LAL115 − 96W
Apr 24vs LAL108 − 112L
Apr 21at LAL94 − 101L