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Kings at Mavericks

NBA · Monday, Nov 2 · 7:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 2

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
DAL by 11.2
Expected score
DAL 124.0 – 112.8 SAC
Expected total
236.8
KingsThe matchupMavericks
+343Our fair odds−343
112.8Expected points124.0
−1.24Power rating−0.34
110.2Points / game114.0
126.8Allowed / game112.0
46.0FG%49.2
30.43P%35.2
41.0Rebounds / game44.2
0−5Season record3−2
2−8Last 105−5
Ben Simmons G · Dylan Cardwell C
Keegan Murray F · Maxime Raynaud COut (4 each)Dereck Lively II C · Santi Aldama F
Sergio de Larrea F · Tarik Biberovic F

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · DAL chance
Our model fair22.6%77.4%
Kalshi23.2%84.0%
Polymarket US26.3%84.9%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:28 AM CTPolymarket US4:29 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+34323%+33123.2%+28026.3%——
DALDallas Mavericks−34377%−52584.0%−56484.9%——
SpreadDAL by 11.2
SACSacramento Kings+11.2our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−11.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.8
Over236.8our total————
Under236.8our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 11.2 expected
Sacramento Kings by 53 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 52 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 51 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 50 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 50 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 51 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 52 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 53 points: <1%
← SAC wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more69%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more55%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more39%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.8 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.569%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.531%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Sacramento Kings
GZach LaVinelast game
GDarius Acuff Jr.last game
FDomantas Sabonislast game
FDe'Andre Hunterlast game
FPrecious Achiuwalast game
Dallas Mavericks
GKyrie Irvinglast game
GMax Christielast game
FDaniel Gaffordlast game
FP.J. Washingtonlast game
FCooper Flagglast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·DAL
Oct 29 at NO
last game
Oct 30 vs HOU
3 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Sacramento Kings
SACBen Simmons G · achilles ruptured, back about Oct 1, 2027Out
SACDylan Cardwell C · left calf strain, back about Nov 6Out
SACKeegan Murray F · ankle, back about Nov 6Out
SACMaxime Raynaud C · right knee dislocated, back about Nov 10Out
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II C · right foot surgeryOut
DALSanti Aldama F · right knee surgeryOut
DALSergio de Larrea F · right knee strain, back about Nov 2Out
DALTarik Biberovic F · right heel inflammationOut
DALNaji Marshall F · illnessDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
SAC·DAL
−1.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
110.2
points / game
114.0
126.8
points allowed / game
112.0
0−5
season record
3−2
0−2
home record
1−1
0−3
away record
2−1
L5
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
5−5
46.0
FG%
49.2
30.4
3P%
35.2
41.0
rebounds / game
44.2
24.4
assists / game
27.6
17.0
turnovers / game
17.0
53.2
points in paint / game
50.8

Rating Trend

SAC · DAL · 10 days
Sacramento KingsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 3−7
Feb 26at DALSAC 130 − 121
Jan 6at SACDAL 100 − 98
Dec 27, 2025at SACSAC 113 − 107
Mar 3, 2025at DALSAC 122 − 98
Feb 10, 2025at DALSAC 129 − 128
Dec 30, 2024at SACSAC 110 − 100
Mar 29, 2024at SACDAL 107 − 103
Mar 26, 2024at SACDAL 132 − 96
Jan 27, 2024at DALSAC 120 − 115
Nov 19, 2023at DALSAC 129 − 113

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Oct 29at NO120 − 132L
Oct 27at SA103 − 130L
Oct 25vs MEM112 − 123L
Oct 23vs POR120 − 128L
Oct 21at LAC96 − 121L
Apr 12at POR110 − 122L
Apr 10vs GS124 − 118W
Apr 7at GS105 − 110L
Apr 5vs LAC109 − 138L
Apr 3vs NO117 − 113W

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 28vs OKC120 − 96W
Oct 26at MIA113 − 109W
Oct 24vs SA106 − 122L
Oct 23at IND121 − 105W
Oct 21at HOU110 − 128L
Apr 12vs CHI149 − 128W
Apr 10at SA120 − 139L
Apr 8at PHX107 − 112L
Apr 7at LAC103 − 116L
Apr 5vs LAL134 − 128W