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Raiders at Broncos

NFL · Thursday, Nov 6 · 7:15 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final LV 7 – DEN 10
← NFL / Nov 6, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LV70007
DEN073010
Team box
LV·DEN
188
total yards
220
114
passing yards
136
74
rushing yards
84
10
first downs
10
4-15
third downs
5-15
1
turnovers
2
29:14
time of possession
30:46
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Geno SmithLV16/2614301
Bo NixDEN16/2815012
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Ashton JeantyLV19601
J.K. DobbinsDEN18770
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tyler LockettLV5440
Pat BryantDEN1430

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +7
LV +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 3 · LV 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LV 18%, DEN 82% · Updated Nov 6, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 15.7
Expected score
DEN 28.2 – 12.5 LV
Expected total
40.7
RaidersThe matchupBroncos
+465Our fair odds−465
12.5Expected points28.2
−0.83Power rating+0.53
16.5Points / game25.0
26.2Allowed / game18.4
283Total yards / game347
5.0Yards / play5.5
194Passing yards / game214
2−6Season record7−2
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LV chance · DEN chance
Our model fair17.7%82.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LVLas Vegas Raiders+46518%————
DENDenver Broncos−46582%————
SpreadDEN by 15.7
LVLas Vegas Raiders+15.7our margin————
DENDenver Broncos−15.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.7
Over40.7our total————
Under40.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 15.7 expected
Las Vegas Raiders by 49 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 48 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 47 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 46 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 45 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 44 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 43 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 42 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 1%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 27 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 29 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 32 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 35 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 41 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 42 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 43 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 44 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 45 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 46 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 47 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 48 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 49 points: <1%
← LV wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more83%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more71%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more63%
Within 3 points either way14%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.7 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.569%
Total over 40.549%
Total over 47.529%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 72% completions, 175 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 55% completions, 233 yds/game, 8 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LV·DEN
Nov 2, 2025 vs JAX
last game
Nov 2, 2025 at HOU
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
LV·DEN
−0.83
rating (0 = average)
+0.53
16.5
points / game
25.0
26.2
points allowed / game
18.4
2−6
season record
7−2
1−3
home record
4−0
1−3
away record
3−2
L2
streak
W6
3−7
last 10
7−3
283
total yards / game
347
5.0
yards / play
5.5
194
passing yards / game
214
89
rushing yards / game
134
17.1
first downs / game
20.1
1.6
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

LV · DEN · 25 days
Las Vegas RaidersDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DEN 2−6
Nov 24, 2024at LVDEN 29 − 19
Oct 6, 2024at DENDEN 34 − 18
Jan 7, 2024at LVLV 27 − 14
Sep 10, 2023at DENLV 17 − 16
Nov 20, 2022at DENLV 22 − 16
Oct 2, 2022at LVLV 32 − 23
Dec 26, 2021at LVLV 17 − 13
Oct 17, 2021at DENLV 34 − 24

LV · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Nov 2, 2025vs JAX29 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025at KC0 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs TEN20 − 10W
Oct 5, 2025at IND6 − 40L
Sep 28, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Sep 21, 2025at WSH24 − 41L
Sep 15, 2025vs LAC9 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at NE20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs LAC20 − 34L
Dec 29, 2024at NO25 − 10W

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W6
Nov 2, 2025at HOU18 − 15W
Oct 26, 2025vs DAL44 − 24W
Oct 19, 2025vs NYG33 − 32W
Oct 12, 2025at NYJ13 − 11W
Oct 5, 2025at PHI21 − 17W
Sep 29, 2025vs CIN28 − 3W
Sep 21, 2025at LAC20 − 23L
Sep 14, 2025at IND28 − 29L
Sep 7, 2025vs TEN20 − 12W
Jan 12, 2025at BUF7 − 31L