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Falcons at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 8:30 AM CT · Olympic Stadium Berlin · neutral site · Final ATL 25 – IND 31
← NFL / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
ATL7738025
IND130012631
Team box
ATL·IND
290
total yards
519
150
passing yards
196
140
rushing yards
323
22
first downs
25
0-8
third downs
2-12
1
turnovers
2
26:09
time of possession
40:20
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.ATL12/2817710
Daniel JonesIND19/2625511
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL17840
Jonathan TaylorIND322443
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Drake LondonATL61041
Tyler WarrenIND8990

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +6
ATL +6
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: IND 6 · ATL 4lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 33%, IND 67% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 8.3
Expected score
IND 27.9 – 19.5 ATL
Expected total
47.4
FalconsThe matchupColts
+202Our fair odds−202
19.5Expected points27.9
−0.32Power rating+0.42
17.9Points / game32.2
22.2Allowed / game20.1
336Total yards / game383
5.4Yards / play6.4
219Passing yards / game258
3−5Season record7−2
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · IND chance
Our model fair33.1%66.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons+20233%————
INDIndianapolis Colts−20267%————
SpreadIND by 8.3
ATLAtlanta Falcons+8.3our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts−8.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.4
Over47.4our total————
Under47.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 8.3 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 6%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 7%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 43 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 44 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 45 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 46 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 47 points: <1%
← ATL wins byIND wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more66%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more51%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more42%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.4 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.567%
Total over 47.547%
Total over 54.530%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 59% completions, 237 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 66% completions, 301 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·IND
Nov 2, 2025 at NE
last game
Nov 2, 2025 at PIT
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
ATL·IND
−0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.42
17.9
points / game
32.2
22.2
points allowed / game
20.1
3−5
season record
7−2
2−2
home record
5−0
1−3
away record
2−2
L3
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
8−2
336
total yards / game
383
5.4
yards / play
6.4
219
passing yards / game
258
117
rushing yards / game
126
19.0
first downs / game
23.6
0.9
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

ATL · IND · 26 days
Atlanta FalconsIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · IND 0−1
Dec 24, 2023at ATLATL 29 − 10

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Nov 2, 2025at NE23 − 24L
Oct 26, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Oct 19, 2025at SF10 − 20L
Oct 13, 2025vs BUF24 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025vs WSH34 − 27W
Sep 21, 2025at CAR0 − 30L
Sep 14, 2025at MIN22 − 6W
Sep 7, 2025vs TB20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs CAR38 − 44L
Dec 29, 2024at WSH24 − 30L

IND · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Nov 2, 2025at PIT20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025vs TEN38 − 14W
Oct 19, 2025at LAC38 − 24W
Oct 12, 2025vs ARI31 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs LV40 − 6W
Sep 28, 2025at LAR20 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TEN41 − 20W
Sep 14, 2025vs DEN29 − 28W
Sep 7, 2025vs MIA33 − 8W
Jan 5, 2025vs JAX26 − 23W