bayesRatings

Lions at Commanders

NFL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 3:25 PM CT · Northwest Stadium · Final DET 44 – WSH 22
← NFL / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET141110944
WSH376622
Team box
DET·WSH
546
total yards
288
320
passing yards
195
226
rushing yards
93
30
first downs
14
5-10
third downs
2-10
0
turnovers
0
32:36
time of possession
27:24
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jared GoffDET25/3332030
Marcus MariotaWSH16/2221320
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jahmyr GibbsDET151422
Jacory Croskey-MerrittWSH11300
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jameson WilliamsDET61191
Treylon BurksWSH3580

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +25
DET +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 0 · DET 25lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 68%, WSH 32% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 8.4
Expected score
DET 33.0 – 24.6 WSH
Expected total
57.5
LionsThe matchupCommanders
−211Our fair odds+211
33.0Expected points24.6
+0.91Power rating−0.18
29.9Points / game22.3
22.2Allowed / game26.2
351Total yards / game329
5.8Yards / play5.7
226Passing yards / game190
5−3Season record3−6
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · WSH chance
Our model fair67.8%32.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions−21168%————
WSHWashington Commanders+21132%————
SpreadDET by 8.4
DETDetroit Lions−8.4our margin————
WSHWashington Commanders+8.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 57.5
Over57.5our total————
Under57.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 8.4 expected
Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 5%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 5%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 8%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 5%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%
← DET wins byWSH wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more69%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more53%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more45%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

57.5 expected
21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 50.565%
Total over 57.549%
Total over 64.533%
Total from 51 to 6432%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 72% completions, 243 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted
WSHMarcus Mariota · last 3 games: 61% completions, 144 yds/game, 3 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·WSH
Nov 2, 2025 vs MIN
last game
Nov 2, 2025 vs SEA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
DET·WSH
+0.91
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
29.9
points / game
22.3
22.2
points allowed / game
26.2
5−3
season record
3−6
3−1
home record
2−2
2−2
away record
1−4
L1
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
3−7
351
total yards / game
329
5.8
yards / play
5.7
226
passing yards / game
190
125
rushing yards / game
140
19.2
first downs / game
18.8
0.8
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

DET · WSH · 26 days
Detroit LionsWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · WSH 1−1
Jan 18, 2025at DETWSH 45 − 31post
Sep 18, 2022at DETDET 36 − 27

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 2, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Oct 20, 2025vs TB24 − 9W
Oct 12, 2025at KC17 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at CIN37 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025vs CLE34 − 10W
Sep 22, 2025at BAL38 − 30W
Sep 14, 2025vs CHI52 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at GB13 − 27L
Jan 18, 2025vs WSH31 − 45L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIN31 − 9W

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Nov 2, 2025vs SEA14 − 38L
Oct 27, 2025at KC7 − 28L
Oct 19, 2025at DAL22 − 44L
Oct 13, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025at LAC27 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025at ATL27 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs LV41 − 24W
Sep 11, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025vs NYG21 − 6W
Jan 26, 2025at PHI23 − 55L