bayesRatings

Patriots at Buccaneers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · Final NE 28 – TB 23
← NFL / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE777728
TB736723
Team box
NE·TB
435
total yards
371
269
passing yards
258
166
rushing yards
113
16
first downs
24
5-14
third downs
5-13
1
turnovers
0
27:35
time of possession
32:25
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE16/3127021
Baker MayfieldTB28/4327330
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
TreVeyon HendersonNE141472
Sean TuckerTB9530
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Mack HollinsNE61060
Emeka EgbukaTB61151

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +12
NE +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TB 7 · NE 12lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 33%, TB 67% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 4.7
Expected score
TB 25.0 – 20.3 NE
Expected total
45.3
PatriotsThe matchupBuccaneers
+201Our fair odds−201
20.3Expected points25.0
+0.01Power rating+0.46
26.3Points / game24.6
18.8Allowed / game22.2
351Total yards / game323
5.7Yards / play5.3
238Passing yards / game225
7−2Season record6−2
8−2Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · TB chance
Our model fair33.2%66.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots+20133%————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−20167%————
SpreadTB by 4.7
NENew England Patriots+4.7our margin————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.3
Over45.3our total————
Under45.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4.7 expected
New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: <1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 25 points: <1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: <1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: <1%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: <1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: <1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 9 points: <1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 1%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 6 points: 3%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 4 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 2 points: 2%New England Patriots by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 7%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 43 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 44 points: <1%
← NE wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more56%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more40%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more32%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.3 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.547%
Total over 52.529%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 76% completions, 254 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 62% completions, 212 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·TB
Nov 2, 2025 vs ATL
last game
Oct 26, 2025 at NO
6 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
NE·TB
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.46
26.3
points / game
24.6
18.8
points allowed / game
22.2
7−2
season record
6−2
3−2
home record
2−1
4−0
away record
4−1
W6
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
7−3
351
total yards / game
323
5.7
yards / play
5.3
238
passing yards / game
225
112
rushing yards / game
98
20.7
first downs / game
18.9
1.2
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

NE · TB · 26 days
New England PatriotsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · TB 1−0
Oct 3, 2021at NETB 19 − 17

NE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL24 − 23W
Oct 26, 2025vs CLE32 − 13W
Oct 19, 2025at TEN31 − 13W
Oct 12, 2025at NO25 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at BUF23 − 20W
Sep 28, 2025vs CAR42 − 13W
Sep 21, 2025vs PIT14 − 21L
Sep 14, 2025at MIA33 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025vs LV13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs BUF23 − 16W

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 26, 2025at NO23 − 3W
Oct 20, 2025at DET9 − 24L
Oct 12, 2025vs SF30 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at SEA38 − 35W
Sep 28, 2025vs PHI25 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 27W
Sep 15, 2025at HOU20 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025at ATL23 − 20W
Jan 12, 2025vs WSH20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs NO27 − 19W