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Steelers at Chargers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 7:20 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final PIT 10 – LAC 25
← NFL / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PIT300710
LAC21031025
Team box
PIT·LAC
221
total yards
314
148
passing yards
199
73
rushing yards
115
11
first downs
18
2-11
third downs
6-17
3
turnovers
0
22:25
time of possession
37:35
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Aaron RodgersPIT16/3116112
Justin HerbertLAC20/3322010
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaylen WarrenPIT14700
Kimani VidalLAC25951
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
DK MetcalfPIT3350
Ladd McConkeyLAC41071

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +22
PIT +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 22 · PIT 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 40%, LAC 60% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
LAC by 4.1
Expected score
LAC 24.1 – 19.9 PIT
Expected total
44.0
SteelersThe matchupChargers
+147Our fair odds−147
19.9Expected points24.1
+0.11Power rating+0.23
25.2Points / game23.9
24.4Allowed / game21.4
288Total yards / game375
5.2Yards / play5.7
201Passing yards / game251
5−3Season record6−3
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · LAC chance
Our model fair40.4%59.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers+14740%————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−14760%————
SpreadLAC by 4.1
PITPittsburgh Steelers+4.1our margin————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.0
Over44.0our total————
Under44.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Chargers by 4.1 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 43 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 42 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 41 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 8%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%
← PIT wins byLAC wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more55%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more39%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more30%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.0 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.566%
Total over 44.546%
Total over 51.528%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 69% completions, 224 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 68% completions, 299 yds/game, 8 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·LAC
Nov 2, 2025 vs IND
last game
Nov 2, 2025 at TEN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
PIT·LAC
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
25.2
points / game
23.9
24.4
points allowed / game
21.4
5−3
season record
6−3
3−2
home record
3−2
2−1
away record
3−1
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
288
total yards / game
375
5.2
yards / play
5.7
201
passing yards / game
251
87
rushing yards / game
124
17.4
first downs / game
21.8
0.9
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

PIT · LAC · 26 days
Pittsburgh SteelersLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · LAC 1−1
Sep 22, 2024at PITPIT 20 − 10
Nov 21, 2021at LACLAC 41 − 37

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 2, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025vs GB25 − 35L
Oct 16, 2025at CIN31 − 33L
Oct 12, 2025vs CLE23 − 9W
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN24 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025at NE21 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025vs SEA17 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 32W
Jan 11, 2025at BAL14 − 28L
Jan 4, 2025vs CIN17 − 19L

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 2, 2025at TEN27 − 20W
Oct 23, 2025vs MIN37 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025vs IND24 − 38L
Oct 12, 2025at MIA29 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs WSH10 − 27L
Sep 28, 2025at NYG18 − 21L
Sep 21, 2025vs DEN23 − 20W
Sep 15, 2025at LV20 − 9W
Sep 5, 2025vs KC27 − 21W
Jan 11, 2025at HOU12 − 32L