bayesRatings

Ravens at Browns

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 3:25 PM CT · Huntington Bank Field · Final BAL 23 – CLE 16
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BAL3701323
CLE3130016
Team box
BAL·CLE
351
total yards
187
167
passing yards
81
184
rushing yards
106
17
first downs
10
5-13
third downs
2-14
3
turnovers
1
32:59
time of possession
27:01
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Lamar JacksonBAL14/2519302
Shedeur SandersCLE4/164701
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Derrick HenryBAL181031
Quinshon JudkinsCLE17590
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Zay FlowersBAL3780
Cedric TillmanCLE3520

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +10
BAL +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 10 · BAL 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 71%, CLE 29% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
BAL by 8.5
Expected score
BAL 25.9 – 17.4 CLE
Expected total
43.2
RavensThe matchupBrowns
−248Our fair odds+248
25.9Expected points17.4
+0.42Power rating−0.83
25.4Points / game16.2
26.1Allowed / game23.4
319Total yards / game265
5.8Yards / play4.1
181Passing yards / game168
4−5Season record2−7
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · CLE chance
Our model fair71.3%28.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Ravens−24871%————
CLECleveland Browns+24829%————
SpreadBAL by 8.5
BALBaltimore Ravens−8.5our margin————
CLECleveland Browns+8.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.2
Over43.2our total————
Under43.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 8.5 expected
Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 8%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 1%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 5%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%
← BAL wins byCLE wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more69%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more53%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more45%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.2 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.568%
Total over 43.547%
Total over 50.528%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 68% completions, 176 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
CLEShedeur Sanders · no recent games on recordstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·CLE
Nov 9, 2025 at MIN
last game
Nov 9, 2025 at NYJ
6 days
days of rest
6 days
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
BAL·CLE
+0.42
rating (0 = average)
−0.83
25.4
points / game
16.2
26.1
points allowed / game
23.4
4−5
season record
2−7
2−3
home record
2−2
2−2
away record
0−5
W3
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
2−8
319
total yards / game
265
5.8
yards / play
4.1
181
passing yards / game
168
137
rushing yards / game
97
18.7
first downs / game
17.4
1.1
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

BAL · CLE · 29 days
Baltimore RavensCleveland Browns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CLE 4−5
Sep 14, 2025at BALBAL 41 − 17
Jan 4, 2025at BALBAL 35 − 10
Oct 27, 2024at CLECLE 29 − 24
Nov 12, 2023at BALCLE 33 − 31
Oct 1, 2023at CLEBAL 28 − 3
Dec 17, 2022at CLECLE 13 − 3
Oct 23, 2022at BALBAL 23 − 20
Dec 12, 2021at CLECLE 24 − 22
Nov 28, 2021at BALBAL 16 − 10

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Nov 9, 2025at MIN27 − 19W
Oct 30, 2025at MIA28 − 6W
Oct 26, 2025vs CHI30 − 16W
Oct 12, 2025vs LAR3 − 17L
Oct 5, 2025vs HOU10 − 44L
Sep 28, 2025at KC20 − 37L
Sep 22, 2025vs DET30 − 38L
Sep 14, 2025vs CLE41 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025at BUF40 − 41L
Jan 19, 2025at BUF25 − 27L

CLE · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Nov 9, 2025at NYJ20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at NE13 − 32L
Oct 19, 2025vs MIA31 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025at PIT9 − 23L
Oct 5, 2025vs MIN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at DET10 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs GB13 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at BAL17 − 41L
Sep 7, 2025vs CIN16 − 17L
Jan 4, 2025at BAL10 − 35L