bayesRatings

Bears at Vikings

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 12:00 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Final CHI 19 – MIN 17
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI0106319
MIN3001417
Team box
CHI·MIN
320
total yards
265
180
passing yards
150
140
rushing yards
115
19
first downs
15
7-18
third downs
3-11
0
turnovers
2
36:59
time of possession
23:01
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Caleb WilliamsCHI16/3219300
J.J. McCarthyMIN16/3215012
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
D'Andre SwiftCHI21900
Aaron Jones Sr.MIN16700
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Cole KmetCHI5450
Justin JeffersonMIN5610

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +13
CHI +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 3 · CHI 13lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 39%, MIN 61% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 4.3
Expected score
MIN 25.6 – 21.4 CHI
Expected total
47.0
BearsThe matchupVikings
+159Our fair odds−159
21.4Expected points25.6
−0.05Power rating+0.16
26.6Points / game22.3
27.4Allowed / game23.7
380Total yards / game300
5.9Yards / play5.1
232Passing yards / game198
6−3Season record4−5
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · MIN chance
Our model fair38.6%61.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears+15939%————
MINMinnesota Vikings−15961%————
SpreadMIN by 4.3
CHIChicago Bears+4.3our margin————
MINMinnesota Vikings−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.0
Over47.0our total————
Under47.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 4.3 expected
Chicago Bears by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 13 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 7%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 44 points: <1%
← CHI wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more55%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more39%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.0 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.566%
Total over 47.546%
Total over 54.529%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 60% completions, 262 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
MINJ.J. McCarthy · last 3 games: 51% completions, 183 yds/game, 3 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·MIN
Nov 9, 2025 vs NYG
last game
Nov 9, 2025 vs BAL
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
CHI·MIN
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
26.6
points / game
22.3
27.4
points allowed / game
23.7
6−3
season record
4−5
3−1
home record
1−3
3−2
away record
3−2
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
380
total yards / game
300
5.9
yards / play
5.1
232
passing yards / game
198
148
rushing yards / game
102
20.9
first downs / game
17.8
0.7
turnovers / game
1.8

Rating Trend

CHI · MIN · 29 days
Chicago BearsMinnesota Vikings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIN 8−1
Sep 8, 2025at CHIMIN 27 − 24
Dec 16, 2024at MINMIN 30 − 12
Nov 24, 2024at CHIMIN 30 − 27
Nov 27, 2023at MINCHI 12 − 10
Oct 15, 2023at CHIMIN 19 − 13
Jan 8, 2023at CHIMIN 29 − 13
Oct 9, 2022at MINMIN 29 − 22
Jan 9, 2022at MINMIN 31 − 17
Dec 20, 2021at CHIMIN 17 − 9

CHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Nov 9, 2025vs NYG24 − 20W
Nov 2, 2025at CIN47 − 42W
Oct 26, 2025at BAL16 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025vs NO26 − 14W
Oct 13, 2025at WSH25 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at LV25 − 24W
Sep 21, 2025vs DAL31 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025at DET21 − 52L
Sep 8, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at GB24 − 22W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Nov 9, 2025vs BAL19 − 27L
Nov 2, 2025at DET27 − 24W
Oct 23, 2025at LAC10 − 37L
Oct 19, 2025vs PHI22 − 28L
Oct 5, 2025at CLE21 − 17W
Sep 28, 2025at PIT21 − 24L
Sep 21, 2025vs CIN48 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025vs ATL6 − 22L
Sep 8, 2025at CHI27 − 24W
Jan 13, 2025at LAR9 − 27L