bayesRatings

Bengals at Steelers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 12:00 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · Final CIN 12 – PIT 34
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CIN603312
PIT73101434
Team box
CIN·PIT
297
total yards
343
192
passing yards
232
105
rushing yards
111
17
first downs
22
7-15
third downs
7-13
2
turnovers
0
29:55
time of possession
30:05
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Joe FlaccoCIN23/4019911
Mason RudolphPIT12/1612710
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chase BrownCIN18990
Jaylen WarrenPIT10620
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tee HigginsCIN3631
Kenny GainwellPIT7812

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +22
CIN +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 22 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 34%, PIT 66% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
PIT by 6.6
Expected score
PIT 29.9 – 23.2 CIN
Expected total
53.1
BengalsThe matchupSteelers
+192Our fair odds−192
23.2Expected points29.9
−0.38Power rating+0.03
24.0Points / game23.6
33.3Allowed / game24.4
308Total yards / game281
5.1Yards / play5.1
229Passing yards / game195
3−6Season record5−4
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · PIT chance
Our model fair34.3%65.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Bengals+19234%————
PITPittsburgh Steelers−19266%————
SpreadPIT by 6.6
CINCincinnati Bengals+6.6our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers−6.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.1
Over53.1our total————
Under53.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Steelers by 6.6 expected
Cincinnati Bengals by 46 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 45 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 44 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 43 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 42 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 41 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 7%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 41 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 42 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 43 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 44 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 45 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 46 points: <1%
← CIN wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 3 or more61%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 7 or more46%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 10 or more38%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.1 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.564%
Total over 53.547%
Total over 60.531%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CINJoe Flacco · last 3 games: 65% completions, 345 yds/game, 9 TD, 2 INTstarted
PITMason Rudolph · last 3 games: 67% completions, 92 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·PIT
Nov 2, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Nov 9, 2025 at LAC
13 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
CIN·PIT
−0.38
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
24.0
points / game
23.6
33.3
points allowed / game
24.4
3−6
season record
5−4
2−3
home record
3−2
1−3
away record
2−2
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
308
total yards / game
281
5.1
yards / play
5.1
229
passing yards / game
195
79
rushing yards / game
86
19.3
first downs / game
16.7
1.6
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

CIN · PIT · 29 days
Cincinnati BengalsPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PIT 4−5
Oct 16, 2025at CINCIN 33 − 31
Jan 4, 2025at PITCIN 19 − 17
Dec 1, 2024at CINPIT 44 − 38
Dec 23, 2023at PITPIT 34 − 11
Nov 26, 2023at CINPIT 16 − 10
Nov 20, 2022at PITCIN 37 − 30
Sep 11, 2022at CINPIT 23 − 20
Nov 28, 2021at CINCIN 41 − 10
Sep 26, 2021at PITCIN 24 − 10

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Nov 2, 2025vs CHI42 − 47L
Oct 26, 2025vs NYJ38 − 39L
Oct 16, 2025vs PIT33 − 31W
Oct 12, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025vs DET24 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at DEN3 − 28L
Sep 21, 2025at MIN10 − 48L
Sep 14, 2025vs JAX31 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025at CLE17 − 16W
Jan 4, 2025at PIT19 − 17W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 9, 2025at LAC10 − 25L
Nov 2, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025vs GB25 − 35L
Oct 16, 2025at CIN31 − 33L
Oct 12, 2025vs CLE23 − 9W
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN24 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025at NE21 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025vs SEA17 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 32W
Jan 11, 2025at BAL14 − 28L