bayesRatings

Lions at Eagles

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 7:20 PM CT · Lincoln Financial Field · Final DET 9 – PHI 16
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET06039
PHI3100316
Team box
DET·PHI
317
total yards
272
243
passing yards
124
74
rushing yards
148
13
first downs
16
3-13
third downs
4-15
1
turnovers
0
24:12
time of possession
35:48
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jared GoffDET14/3725511
Jalen HurtsPHI14/2813500
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jahmyr GibbsDET12390
Saquon BarkleyPHI26830
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jahmyr GibbsDET51070
A.J. BrownPHI7490

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +10
DET +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 10 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 47%, PHI 53% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 1.5
Expected score
DET 27.1 – 25.6 PHI
Expected total
52.7
LionsThe matchupEagles
+112Our fair odds−112
27.1Expected points25.6
+1.02Power rating+0.86
31.4Points / game24.2
22.2Allowed / game21.3
372Total yards / game303
6.0Yards / play5.3
236Passing yards / game192
6−3Season record7−2
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · PHI chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions+11247%————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−11253%————
SpreadDET by 1.5
DETDetroit Lions−1.5our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 52.7
Over52.7our total————
Under52.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 1.5 expected
Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 5%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 9%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 7%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%
← DET wins byPHI wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more51%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more32%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

52.7 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 45.566%
Total over 52.548%
Total over 59.532%
Total from 46 to 5934%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 71% completions, 282 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 71% completions, 229 yds/game, 8 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·PHI
Nov 9, 2025 at WSH
last game
Nov 10, 2025 at GB
6 days
days of rest
5 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
DET·PHI
+1.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.86
31.4
points / game
24.2
22.2
points allowed / game
21.3
6−3
season record
7−2
3−1
home record
3−1
3−2
away record
4−1
W1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
8−2
372
total yards / game
303
6.0
yards / play
5.3
236
passing yards / game
192
136
rushing yards / game
112
20.4
first downs / game
17.3
0.7
turnovers / game
0.4

Rating Trend

DET · PHI · 29 days
Detroit LionsPhiladelphia Eagles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · PHI 2−0
Sep 11, 2022at DETPHI 38 − 35
Oct 31, 2021at DETPHI 44 − 6

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 9, 2025at WSH44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Oct 20, 2025vs TB24 − 9W
Oct 12, 2025at KC17 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at CIN37 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025vs CLE34 − 10W
Sep 22, 2025at BAL38 − 30W
Sep 14, 2025vs CHI52 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at GB13 − 27L
Jan 18, 2025vs WSH31 − 45L

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Nov 10, 2025at GB10 − 7W
Oct 26, 2025vs NYG38 − 20W
Oct 19, 2025at MIN28 − 22W
Oct 9, 2025at NYG17 − 34L
Oct 5, 2025vs DEN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at TB31 − 25W
Sep 21, 2025vs LAR33 − 26W
Sep 14, 2025at KC20 − 17W
Sep 4, 2025vs DAL24 − 20W
Feb 9, 2025vs KC40 − 22W