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Texans at Titans

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 12:00 PM CT · Nissan Stadium · Final HOU 16 – TEN 13
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU0010616
TEN303713
Team box
HOU·TEN
315
total yards
229
240
passing yards
171
75
rushing yards
58
20
first downs
14
4-13
third downs
6-15
0
turnovers
1
31:03
time of possession
28:57
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Davis MillsHOU26/4127410
Cam WardTEN24/3719410
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Woody MarksHOU18440
Cam WardTEN3330
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Nico CollinsHOU9921
Chig OkonkwoTEN3560

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEN +7
HOU +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TEN 6 · HOU 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 76%, TEN 24% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 11.1
Expected score
HOU 25.4 – 14.3 TEN
Expected total
39.7
TexansThe matchupTitans
−313Our fair odds+313
25.4Expected points14.3
+0.27Power rating−1.23
22.7Points / game14.4
16.7Allowed / game28.6
331Total yards / game244
5.2Yards / play4.2
220Passing yards / game163
4−5Season record1−8
4−6Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · TEN chance
Our model fair75.8%24.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans−31376%————
TENTennessee Titans+31324%————
SpreadHOU by 11.1
HOUHouston Texans−11.1our margin————
TENTennessee Titans+11.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.7
Over39.7our total————
Under39.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 11.1 expected
Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: 1%Houston Texans by 37 points: 1%Houston Texans by 36 points: 1%Houston Texans by 35 points: 1%Houston Texans by 34 points: 2%Houston Texans by 33 points: 1%Houston Texans by 32 points: 1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 2%Houston Texans by 30 points: 1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 5%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: 1%Houston Texans by 25 points: 2%Houston Texans by 24 points: 4%Houston Texans by 23 points: 3%Houston Texans by 22 points: 2%Houston Texans by 21 points: 3%Houston Texans by 20 points: 2%Houston Texans by 19 points: 2%Houston Texans by 18 points: 2%Houston Texans by 17 points: 4%Houston Texans by 16 points: 2%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 5%Houston Texans by 13 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 6 points: 3%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 3 points: 6%Houston Texans by 2 points: 1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 1%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 4%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%
← HOU wins byTEN wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more74%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more61%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more54%
Within 3 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.7 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.570%
Total over 39.549%
Total over 46.529%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
HOUDavis Mills · last 3 games: 58% completions, 151 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 63% completions, 220 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·TEN
Nov 9, 2025 vs JAX
last game
Nov 2, 2025 vs LAC
6 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
HOU·TEN
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
−1.23
22.7
points / game
14.4
16.7
points allowed / game
28.6
4−5
season record
1−8
3−2
home record
0−4
1−3
away record
1−4
W1
streak
L4
4−6
last 10
1−9
331
total yards / game
244
5.2
yards / play
4.2
220
passing yards / game
163
111
rushing yards / game
81
19.2
first downs / game
15.2
1.0
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

HOU · TEN · 29 days
Houston TexansTennessee Titans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TEN 3−6
Sep 28, 2025at HOUHOU 26 − 0
Jan 5, 2025at TENHOU 23 − 14
Nov 24, 2024at HOUTEN 32 − 27
Dec 31, 2023at HOUHOU 26 − 3
Dec 17, 2023at TENHOU 19 − 16
Dec 24, 2022at TENHOU 19 − 14
Oct 30, 2022at HOUTEN 17 − 10
Jan 9, 2022at HOUTEN 28 − 25
Nov 21, 2021at TENHOU 22 − 13

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 9, 2025vs JAX36 − 29W
Nov 2, 2025vs DEN15 − 18L
Oct 26, 2025vs SF26 − 15W
Oct 20, 2025at SEA19 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025at BAL44 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025vs TEN26 − 0W
Sep 21, 2025at JAX10 − 17L
Sep 15, 2025vs TB19 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at LAR9 − 14L
Jan 18, 2025at KC14 − 23L

TEN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L4
Nov 2, 2025vs LAC20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at IND14 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025vs NE13 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025at LV10 − 20L
Oct 5, 2025at ARI22 − 21W
Sep 28, 2025at HOU0 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs IND20 − 41L
Sep 14, 2025vs LAR19 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at DEN12 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs HOU14 − 23L