bayesRatings

Mets at Nationals

MLB · Sunday, Sep 27 · 12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final NYM 4 – WSH 6
← MLB / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM130000000490
WSH11201010691
Team box
NYM·WSH
9
hits
9
2
home runs
2
4
walks
3
9
strikeouts
5
145
pitches thrown
171
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andres ChaparroWSH3-4222
Ronny MauricioNYM2-3112
Francisco LindorNYM2-4211
Carson BengeNYM3-5001
CJ AbramsWSH1-4001
Jacob YoungWSH1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Manaea (L)NYM6.07513
DJ HerzWSH3.06412
Will Dion (W)WSH2.01012
Erik Tolman (S)WSH1.11012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 2 · NYM 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 50%, WSH 50% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 5.2 – 5.1 WSH
Expected total
10.3
MetsThe matchupNationals
−101Our fair odds+101
5.2Expected runs5.1
−0.01Power rating−0.10
4.3Runs / game5.1
4.5Allowed / game5.0
8.1Hits / game8.4
1.25Home runs / game1.29
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
74−87Season record76−85
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · WSH chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10150%−11653.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+10150%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets−0.2our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.3
Over10.3our total————
Under10.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byWSH wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more39%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more30%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 19 Kstarted
WSHDJ Herz SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 8.76 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·WSH
Sep 26 at WSH
last game
Sep 26 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 161+ games
NYM·WSH
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.3
runs / game
5.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.0
74−87
season record
76−85
36−45
home record
38−42
38−42
away record
38−43
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.4
1.25
home runs / game
1.29
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.58
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

NYM · WSH · 183 days
New York MetsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Sep 26at WSHNYM 7 − 1
Sep 25at WSHWSH 7 − 6
Aug 16at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Aug 15at NYMNYM 5 − 4
Aug 14at NYMNYM 4 − 1
May 21at WSHNYM 2 − 1
May 20at WSHWSH 8 − 4
May 19at WSHWSH 9 − 6
May 18at WSHNYM 16 − 7
Apr 30at NYMWSH 5 − 4

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 26at WSH7 − 1W
Sep 25at WSH6 − 7L
Sep 24at TEX1 − 3L
Sep 23at TEX7 − 2W
Sep 22at TEX6 − 3W
Sep 20vs PHI2 − 7L
Sep 19vs PHI10 − 3W
Sep 18vs PHI6 − 3W
Sep 17vs PHI0 − 3L
Sep 16vs BAL1 − 7L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 26vs NYM1 − 7L
Sep 25vs NYM7 − 6W
Sep 23at DET4 − 2W
Sep 22at DET3 − 1W
Sep 21at DET2 − 9L
Sep 20at STL3 − 5L
Sep 19at STL8 − 5W
Sep 18at STL9 − 1W
Sep 16vs PHI0 − 3L
Sep 15vs PHI6 − 3W