bayesRatings

Mets at Nationals

MLB · Saturday, Sep 26 · 11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · Final NYM 7 – WSH 1
← MLB / Sep 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM0000004127101
WSH001000000131
Team box
NYM·WSH
10
hits
3
3
home runs
0
4
walks
1
8
strikeouts
14
144
pitches thrown
164
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ronny MauricioNYM2-4223
A.J. EwingNYM1-3213
Carson BengeNYM3-5200
Juan SotoNYM2-4000
James WoodWSH2-4000
Bo BichetteNYM1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jonah TongNYM5.03119
Dedniel Nunez (W)NYM1.00003
Connelly EarlyWSH3.01001
Jake Irvin (L)WSH5.08426

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +6
NYM +6
123456789
largest lead: WSH 1 · NYM 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 50%, WSH 50% · Updated Sep 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 5.2 – 5.2 WSH
Expected total
10.4
MetsThe matchupNationals
+102Our fair odds−102
5.2Expected runs5.2
−0.02Power rating−0.09
4.3Runs / game5.1
4.5Allowed / game5.0
8.1Hits / game8.4
1.24Home runs / game1.30
3.2Walks drawn / game3.4
73−87Season record76−84
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+10250%−10751.8%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10250%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets−0.1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byWSH wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more39%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more29%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMJonah Tong SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 18 Kstarted
WSHConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·WSH
Sep 25 at WSH
last game
Sep 25 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 160+ games
NYM·WSH
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.3
runs / game
5.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.0
73−87
season record
76−84
36−45
home record
38−41
37−42
away record
38−43
L2
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.1
hits / game
8.4
1.24
home runs / game
1.30
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.58
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

NYM · WSH · 182 days
New York MetsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
Sep 25at WSHWSH 7 − 6
Aug 16at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Aug 15at NYMNYM 5 − 4
Aug 14at NYMNYM 4 − 1
May 21at WSHNYM 2 − 1
May 20at WSHWSH 8 − 4
May 19at WSHWSH 9 − 6
May 18at WSHNYM 16 − 7
Apr 30at NYMWSH 5 − 4
Apr 29at NYMWSH 14 − 2

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 25at WSH6 − 7L
Sep 24at TEX1 − 3L
Sep 23at TEX7 − 2W
Sep 22at TEX6 − 3W
Sep 20vs PHI2 − 7L
Sep 19vs PHI10 − 3W
Sep 18vs PHI6 − 3W
Sep 17vs PHI0 − 3L
Sep 16vs BAL1 − 7L
Sep 15vs BAL5 − 7L

WSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Sep 25vs NYM7 − 6W
Sep 23at DET4 − 2W
Sep 22at DET3 − 1W
Sep 21at DET2 − 9L
Sep 20at STL3 − 5L
Sep 19at STL8 − 5W
Sep 18at STL9 − 1W
Sep 16vs PHI0 − 3L
Sep 15vs PHI6 − 3W
Sep 13vs LAA6 − 5W