bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Spurs

NBA · Saturday, Oct 31 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center
← NBA / Oct 31

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
SA by 10.6
Expected score
SA 119.1 – 108.5 MIN
Expected total
227.7
TimberwolvesThe matchupSpurs
+389Our fair odds−389
108.5Expected points119.1
+0.54Power rating+1.05
121.5Points / game116.6
106.7Allowed / game110.0
48.7FG%46.2
39.33P%34.6
50.2Rebounds / game45.0
4−2Season record3−2
5−5Last 104−6
Anthony Edwards · Donte DiVincenzoOut (2 each)Jayden Quaintance · Tobias Harris

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · SA chance
Our model fair20.5%79.5%
Kalshi19.0%84.0%
Polymarket US19.0%84.0%
ProphetX18.9%83.3%
Novig17.0%84.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi1:26 PM CTPolymarket US1:26 PM CTProphetX1:26 PM CTNovig1:25 PM CT
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+38920%+42519.0%+42619.0%+42918.9%+48817.0%
SASan Antonio Spurs−38980%−52584.0%−52484.0%−49783.3%−52584.0%
SpreadSA by 10.6
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+10.6our margin+12.5 −11252.7%+12.5 −11252.7%+12.5 −10651.5%+12.5 −10250.5%
SASan Antonio Spurs−10.6our margin−12.5 −10751.8%−12.5 −10751.7%−12.5 −10651.5%−12.5 +10050.0%
Totalwe expect 227.7
Over227.7our totalo228.5 −10751.8%o228.5 −10751.7%o228.5 −10350.8%o228.5 +10050.0%
Under227.7our totalu228.5 −11252.7%u228.5 −11252.7%u228.5 −11252.9%u228.5 −11152.5%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 10.6 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 52 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 51 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 50 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 51 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 52 points: <1%
← MIN wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more68%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more53%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.7 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Minnesota Timberwolves
PGLaMelo Ballexpected
SGAyo Dosunmuexpected
SFJonathan Kumingaexpected
PFJaden McDanielsexpected
CRudy Gobertexpected
San Antonio Spurs
PGDe'Aaron Foxexpected
SGStephon Castleexpected
SFDylan Harperexpected
PFDevin Vassellexpected
CVictor Wembanyamaexpected

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·SA
Oct 30 vs LAC
last game
Oct 28 at UTAH
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee arthroscopyOut
MINDonte DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon repair / surgeryOut
MINRudy Gobert · low back spasmsQuestionable
San Antonio Spurs
SAJayden Quaintance · right knee surgeryOut
SATobias Harris · left calf strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
MIN·SA
+0.54
rating (0 = average)
+1.05
121.5
points / game
116.6
106.7
points allowed / game
110.0
4−2
season record
3−2
2−1
home record
1−2
2−1
away record
2−0
W1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
4−6
48.7
FG%
46.2
39.3
3P%
34.6
50.2
rebounds / game
45.0
27.8
assists / game
28.2
16.2
turnovers / game
13.2
51.0
points in paint / game
54.8

Rating Trend

MIN · SA · 11 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 5−5
May 15at MINSA 139 − 109post
May 12at SASA 126 − 97post
May 10at MINMIN 114 − 109post
May 8at MINSA 115 − 108post
May 6at SASA 133 − 95post
May 4at SAMIN 104 − 102post
Jan 17at SASA 126 − 123
Jan 11at MINMIN 104 − 103
Nov 30, 2025at MINMIN 125 − 112
Mar 9, 2025at MINMIN 141 − 124

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 30vs LAC127 − 101W
Oct 28vs GS114 − 119L
Oct 26at CLE125 − 127L
Oct 25vs TOR117 − 94W
Oct 23at ORL115 − 93W
Oct 21at MIA131 − 106W
May 15vs SA109 − 139L
May 12at SA97 − 126L
May 10vs SA114 − 109W
May 8vs SA108 − 115L

SA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Oct 28at UTAH117 − 111W
Oct 27vs SAC130 − 103W
Oct 24at DAL122 − 106W
Oct 23vs HOU110 − 114L
Oct 20vs OKC104 − 116L
Jun 13vs NY90 − 94L
Jun 10at NY106 − 107L
Jun 8at NY115 − 111W
Jun 5vs NY104 − 105L
Jun 3vs NY95 − 105L