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Hawks at Pacers

NBA · Monday, Nov 2 · 6:30 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 2

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
ATL by 5.0
Expected score
ATL 120.3 – 115.4 IND
Expected total
235.7
HawksThe matchupPacers
−177Our fair odds+177
120.3Expected points115.4
+0.31Power rating−0.82
119.2Points / game115.0
114.5Allowed / game114.8
46.7FG%47.2
36.03P%30.6
43.3Rebounds / game44.0
3−3Season record2−3
4−6Last 103−7
Henri Veesaar C · Mouhamed Gueye FOutBen Sheppard G · Ivica Zubac C
Johnny Furphy G · T.J. McConnell G
Tyrese Haliburton G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · IND chance
Our model fair63.9%36.1%
Kalshi65.6%41.7%
Polymarket US70.5%43.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:28 AM CTPolymarket US4:28 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks−17764%−19165.6%−23970.5%——
INDIndiana Pacers+17736%+14041.7%+12943.7%——
SpreadATL by 5.0
ATLAtlanta Hawks−5our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+5our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.7
Over235.7our total————
Under235.7our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 5.0 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%
← ATL wins byIND wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more54%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more38%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.7 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.531%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumlast game
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerlast game
GDyson Danielslast game
FOnyeka Okongwulast game
FJalen Johnsonlast game
Indiana Pacers
GKelly Oubre Jr.last game
GAndrew Nembhardlast game
GAaron Nesmithlast game
FPascal Siakamlast game
CJay Hufflast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·IND
Oct 29 vs CLE
last game
Oct 30 at MIA
3 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Atlanta Hawks
ATLHenri Veesaar COut
ATLMouhamed Gueye F · left foot fracture, back about Nov 20Out
Indiana Pacers
INDBen Sheppard G · left knee, back about Jan 2, 2027Out
INDIvica Zubac C · left ankle sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy G · right knee surgery, back about Jan 2, 2027Out
INDT.J. McConnell G · right hamstring strain, back about Nov 2Out
INDTyrese Haliburton G · left hamstring strain, back about Nov 13Out
INDAaron Nesmith G · hamstringDay-to-day
INDAndrew Nembhard G · neck sorenessDay-to-day
INDObi Toppin F · backDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
ATL·IND
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.82
119.2
points / game
115.0
114.5
points allowed / game
114.8
3−3
season record
2−3
1−2
home record
0−2
2−1
away record
2−1
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
3−7
46.7
FG%
47.2
36.0
3P%
30.6
43.3
rebounds / game
44.0
32.5
assists / game
29.4
13.8
turnovers / game
15.4
55.0
points in paint / game
55.2

Rating Trend

ATL · IND · 10 days
Atlanta HawksIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 6−4
Jan 31at INDIND 129 − 124
Jan 26at ATLATL 132 − 116
Oct 31, 2025at INDATL 128 − 108
Mar 8, 2025at ATLATL 120 − 118
Mar 6, 2025at ATLATL 124 − 118
Feb 1, 2025at INDIND 132 − 127
Apr 14, 2024at INDIND 157 − 115
Jan 12, 2024at ATLIND 126 − 108
Jan 5, 2024at INDIND 150 − 116
Nov 21, 2023at ATLIND 157 − 152

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 29vs CLE114 − 111W
Oct 28vs MIA117 − 129L
Oct 26at HOU110 − 120L
Oct 24vs HOU114 − 121L
Oct 23at CHA128 − 81W
Oct 21at ORL132 − 125W
Apr 30vs NY89 − 140L
Apr 28at NY97 − 126L
Apr 25vs NY98 − 114L
Apr 23vs NY109 − 108W

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 28vs PHI109 − 114L
Oct 26at MIL102 − 110L
Oct 25at BKN136 − 109W
Oct 23vs DAL105 − 121L
Oct 21at NO123 − 120W
Apr 12vs DET121 − 133L
Apr 10vs PHI94 − 105L
Apr 9at BKN123 − 94W
Apr 7vs MIN104 − 124L
Apr 5at CLE108 − 117L