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Timberwolves at Rockets

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 4 · 7:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 4

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
HOU by 3.4
Expected score
HOU 113.9 – 110.5 MIN
Expected total
224.3
TimberwolvesThe matchupRockets
+152Our fair odds−152
110.5Expected points113.9
+0.46Power rating+0.75
120.4Points / game123.0
107.8Allowed / game108.8
47.6FG%51.6
38.63P%39.8
51.6Rebounds / game45.0
3−2Season record5−0
4−6Last 107−3
Anthony Edwards G · Donte DiVincenzo GOutMarcus Smart G · Reed Sheppard G
Steven Adams C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · HOU chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+15240%————
HOUHouston Rockets−15260%————
SpreadHOU by 3.4
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+3.4our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.3
Over224.3our total————
Under224.3our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 3.4 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%
← MIN wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more50%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more35%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.3 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Minnesota Timberwolves
GAyo Dosunmulast game
GLaMelo Balllast game
FJaden McDanielslast game
FJonathan Kumingalast game
CRudy Gobertlast game
Houston Rockets
GFred VanVleetlast game
GAmen Thompsonlast game
FKevin Durantlast game
FJabari Smith Jr.last game
FTari Easonlast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·HOU
Oct 30 vs LAC
last game
Oct 30 at DAL
4 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards G · right knee surgery, back about Dec 21Out
MINDonte DiVincenzo G · right achilles surgery, back about Apr 2, 2027Out
Houston Rockets
HOUMarcus Smart G · left forearm strainOut
HOUReed Sheppard G · backOut
HOUSteven Adams C · right calf strainOut
HOUAlperen Sengun C · back sorenessDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
MIN·HOU
+0.46
rating (0 = average)
+0.75
120.4
points / game
123.0
107.8
points allowed / game
108.8
3−2
season record
5−0
1−1
home record
2−0
2−1
away record
3−0
L2
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
7−3
47.6
FG%
51.6
38.6
3P%
39.8
51.6
rebounds / game
45.0
27.0
assists / game
28.4
17.0
turnovers / game
16.8
48.8
points in paint / game
50.8

Rating Trend

MIN · HOU · 10 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 3−7
Apr 10at HOUMIN 136 − 132
Mar 25at MINMIN 110 − 108
Jan 16at HOUHOU 110 − 105
Feb 21, 2025at HOUHOU 121 − 115
Feb 6, 2025at MINMIN 127 − 114
Dec 27, 2024at HOUMIN 113 − 112
Nov 26, 2024at MINHOU 117 − 111
Apr 2, 2024at MINMIN 113 − 106
Feb 4, 2024at MINMIN 111 − 90
Jan 5, 2024at HOUMIN 122 − 95

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 28vs GS114 − 119L
Oct 26at CLE125 − 127L
Oct 25vs TOR117 − 94W
Oct 23at ORL115 − 93W
Oct 21at MIA131 − 106W
May 15vs SA109 − 139L
May 12at SA97 − 126L
May 10vs SA114 − 109W
May 8vs SA108 − 115L
May 6at SA95 − 133L

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Oct 28at MIL132 − 100W
Oct 26vs ATL120 − 110W
Oct 24at ATL121 − 114W
Oct 23at SA114 − 110W
Oct 21vs DAL128 − 110W
May 1vs LAL78 − 98L
Apr 29at LAL99 − 93W
Apr 26vs LAL115 − 96W
Apr 24vs LAL108 − 112L
Apr 21at LAL94 − 101L