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Heat at Warriors

NBA · Thursday, Nov 5 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 5

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
GS by 6.1
Expected score
GS 123.4 – 117.4 MIA
Expected total
240.8
HeatThe matchupWarriors
+200Our fair odds−200
117.4Expected points123.4
−0.04Power rating−0.13
113.0Points / game117.6
120.8Allowed / game119.4
45.4FG%45.0
32.03P%36.2
42.8Rebounds / game43.8
1−4Season record2−3
4−6Last 103−7
—OutJimmy Butler III F · Kristaps Porzingis C
Moses Moody G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · GS chance
Our model fair33.4%66.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket US52.7%94.4%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US5:14 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+20033%—−11252.7%——
GSGolden State Warriors−20067%—−168394.4%——
SpreadGS by 6.1
MIAMiami Heat+6.1our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−6.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 240.8
Over240.8our total————
Under240.8our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 6.1 expected
Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: <1%Miami Heat by 22 points: <1%Miami Heat by 21 points: <1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 1%Miami Heat by 11 points: 1%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%
← MIA wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more57%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more41%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

240.8 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.568%
Total over 240.549%
Total over 250.531%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Miami Heat
GKlay Thompsonlast game
GDavion Mitchelllast game
FGiannis Antetokounmpolast game
FAndrew Wigginslast game
CBam Adebayolast game
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currylast game
GBrandin Podziemskilast game
FDraymond Greenlast game
FGeorges Nianglast game
FYaxel Lendeborglast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·GS
Oct 30 vs IND
last game
Oct 30 vs LAL
5 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Miami Heat
MIASimone Fontecchio F · illnessDay-to-day
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III F · right knee surgery, back about Jan 2, 2027Out
GSKristaps Porzingis C · illness, back about Dec 1Out
GSMoses Moody G · left knee surgery, back about Dec 1Out
GSGui Santos F · left knee tendinitisDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
MIA·GS
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
113.0
points / game
117.6
120.8
points allowed / game
119.4
1−4
season record
2−3
0−3
home record
0−1
1−1
away record
2−2
W1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
3−7
45.4
FG%
45.0
32.0
3P%
36.2
42.8
rebounds / game
43.8
27.0
assists / game
25.6
14.8
turnovers / game
17.4
52.4
points in paint / game
46.4

Rating Trend

MIA · GS · 10 days
Miami HeatGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 5−5
Jan 19at GSGS 135 − 112
Nov 19, 2025at MIAMIA 110 − 96
Mar 25, 2025at MIAMIA 112 − 86
Jan 7, 2025at GSMIA 114 − 98
Mar 26, 2024at MIAGS 113 − 92
Dec 28, 2023at GSMIA 114 − 102
Nov 1, 2022at MIAMIA 116 − 109
Oct 27, 2022at GSGS 123 − 110
Mar 23, 2022at MIAGS 118 − 104
Jan 3, 2022at GSGS 115 − 108

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 28at ATL129 − 117W
Oct 26vs DAL109 − 113L
Oct 24at CHA110 − 115L
Oct 23vs DET111 − 128L
Oct 21vs MIN106 − 131L
Apr 12vs ATL143 − 117W
Apr 10at WSH140 − 117W
Apr 9at TOR114 − 128L
Apr 7at TOR95 − 121L
Apr 4vs WSH152 − 136W

GS · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Oct 28at MIN119 − 114W
Oct 26at DEN134 − 114W
Oct 24at PHX122 − 131L
Oct 23vs MEM108 − 111L
Oct 21at LAL105 − 127L
Apr 12at LAC110 − 115L
Apr 10at SAC118 − 124L
Apr 9vs LAL103 − 119L
Apr 7vs SAC110 − 105W
Apr 5vs HOU116 − 117L