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Thunder at Grizzlies

NBA · Friday, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 6

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
OKC by 9.3
Expected score
OKC 118.7 – 109.5 MEM
Expected total
228.2
ThunderThe matchupGrizzlies
−281Our fair odds+281
118.7Expected points109.5
+1.21Power rating−0.36
108.2Points / game118.2
104.6Allowed / game106.2
44.0FG%45.6
31.63P%40.0
46.0Rebounds / game50.4
4−1Season record5−0
6−4Last 105−5
Alex Caruso G · Cason Wallace G
Jalen Williams G · Nikola Topic G
Thomas Sorber COut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · MEM chance
Our model fair73.7%26.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket US94.4%47.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US5:27 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−28174%—−168394.4%——
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+28126%—+11047.7%——
SpreadOKC by 9.3
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−9.3our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+9.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.2
Over228.2our total————
Under228.2our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 9.3 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byMEM wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more66%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more50%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Oklahoma City Thunder
GKenrich Williamslast game
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderlast game
GJared McCainlast game
GAjay Mitchelllast game
CIsaiah Hartensteinlast game
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromelast game
FCedric Cowardlast game
FCameron Boozerlast game
FJaylen Wellslast game
CZach Edeylast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·MEM
Oct 28 at DAL
last game
Oct 29 at POR
8 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso G · right ankleOut
OKCCason Wallace G · left shoulder, back about Mar 2, 2027Out
OKCJalen Williams G · left leg fracture, back about Mar 2, 2027Out
OKCNikola Topic G · backOut
OKCThomas Sorber C · kneeOut
OKCChet Holmgren C · right kneeDay-to-day
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMQuinten Post C · right ankleDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
OKC·MEM
+1.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
108.2
points / game
118.2
104.6
points allowed / game
106.2
4−1
season record
5−0
3−0
home record
1−0
1−1
away record
4−0
L1
streak
W5
6−4
last 10
5−5
44.0
FG%
45.6
31.6
3P%
40.0
46.0
rebounds / game
50.4
22.0
assists / game
26.4
14.8
turnovers / game
15.8
49.2
points in paint / game
46.0

Rating Trend

OKC · MEM · 10 days
Oklahoma City ThunderMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 0−10
Jan 9at MEMOKC 117 − 116
Dec 22, 2025at OKCOKC 119 − 103
Nov 9, 2025at MEMOKC 114 − 100
Apr 26, 2025at MEMOKC 117 − 115post
Apr 24, 2025at MEMOKC 114 − 108post
Apr 22, 2025at OKCOKC 118 − 99post
Apr 20, 2025at OKCOKC 131 − 80post
Mar 27, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 104
Mar 5, 2025at MEMOKC 120 − 103
Feb 8, 2025at MEMOKC 125 − 112

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 28at DAL96 − 120L
Oct 26vs PHX125 − 114W
Oct 25vs LAC108 − 101W
Oct 22vs DEN96 − 84W
Oct 20at SA116 − 104W
May 30vs SA103 − 111L
May 28at SA91 − 118L
May 26vs SA127 − 114W
May 24at SA82 − 103L
May 22at SA123 − 108W

MEM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W5
Oct 29at POR124 − 103W
Oct 26at UTAH110 − 105W
Oct 25at SAC123 − 112W
Oct 23at GS111 − 108W
Oct 21vs UTAH123 − 103W
Apr 12at HOU101 − 132L
Apr 10at UTAH101 − 147L
Apr 8at DEN119 − 136L
Apr 6vs CLE126 − 142L
Apr 5at MIL115 − 131L