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Nuggets at Pacers

NBA · Saturday, Nov 7 · 4:00 PM CT · Arena CDMX · neutral site · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 7

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
DEN by 9.1
Expected score
DEN 125.0 – 115.9 IND
Expected total
240.9
NuggetsThe matchupPacers
−281Our fair odds+281
125.0Expected points115.9
+0.47Power rating−0.86
114.0Points / game116.7
115.2Allowed / game119.8
47.0FG%47.3
37.23P%33.2
43.6Rebounds / game42.8
3−2Season record2−4
4−6Last 103−7
Alpha Diallo F · Julian Strawther G
Spencer Jones FOutBen Sheppard G · Ivica Zubac C
Johnny Furphy G · T.J. McConnell G
Tyrese Haliburton G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · IND chance
Our model fair73.8%26.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket US94.4%48.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US6:42 PM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−28174%—−168394.4%——
INDIndiana Pacers+28126%—+10548.7%——
SpreadDEN by 9.1
DENDenver Nuggets−9.1our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+9.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 240.9
Over240.9our total————
Under240.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 9.1 expected
Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%
← DEN wins byIND wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more66%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more49%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

240.9 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.568%
Total over 240.549%
Total over 250.531%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraylast game
GChristian Braunlast game
FAaron Gordonlast game
FCameron Johnsonlast game
CNikola Jokiclast game
Indiana Pacers
GKelly Oubre Jr.last game
GAndrew Nembhardlast game
GAaron Nesmithlast game
FPascal Siakamlast game
CJay Hufflast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·IND
Oct 30 at PHX
last game
Oct 30 at MIA
7 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Denver Nuggets
DENAlpha Diallo F · right personalOut
DENJulian Strawther G · left knee sprain, back about Nov 29Out
DENSpencer Jones F · hamstringOut
Indiana Pacers
INDBen Sheppard G · left knee, back about Jan 2, 2027Out
INDIvica Zubac C · left ankle sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy G · right knee surgery, back about Jan 2, 2027Out
INDT.J. McConnell G · right hamstring strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton G · left hamstring strain, back about Nov 13Out
INDObi Toppin F · back sorenessDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
DEN·IND
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
−0.86
114.0
points / game
116.7
115.2
points allowed / game
119.8
3−2
season record
2−4
1−1
home record
0−2
2−1
away record
2−2
W2
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
3−7
47.0
FG%
47.3
37.2
3P%
33.2
43.6
rebounds / game
42.8
26.8
assists / game
29.2
16.6
turnovers / game
15.3
42.8
points in paint / game
54.3

Rating Trend

DEN · IND · 11 days
Denver NuggetsIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 1−9
Dec 3, 2025at INDDEN 135 − 120
Nov 8, 2025at DENDEN 117 − 100
Apr 6, 2025at DENIND 125 − 120
Feb 24, 2025at INDDEN 125 − 116
Jan 23, 2024at INDDEN 114 − 109
Jan 14, 2024at DENDEN 117 − 109
Jan 20, 2023at DENDEN 134 − 111
Nov 9, 2022at INDDEN 122 − 119
Mar 30, 2022at INDDEN 125 − 118
Nov 10, 2021at DENDEN 101 − 98

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Oct 30at PHX127 − 120W
Oct 28at NO104 − 91W
Oct 26vs GS114 − 134L
Oct 24vs NO141 − 135W
Oct 22at OKC84 − 96L
Apr 30at MIN98 − 110L
Apr 27vs MIN125 − 113W
Apr 25at MIN96 − 112L
Apr 23at MIN96 − 113L
Apr 20vs MIN114 − 119L

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Oct 30at MIA125 − 145L
Oct 28vs PHI109 − 114L
Oct 26at MIL102 − 110L
Oct 25at BKN136 − 109W
Oct 23vs DAL105 − 121L
Oct 21at NO123 − 120W
Apr 12vs DET121 − 133L
Apr 10vs PHI94 − 105L
Apr 9at BKN123 − 94W
Apr 7vs MIN104 − 124L