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Pacers at Heat

NBA · Friday, Oct 30 · 7:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final IND 125 – MIA 145
← NBA / Oct 30

Box score and game flow are added the next morning.

Final · our forecast was IND 26%, MIA 74% · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
MIA by 9.3
Expected score
MIA 123.9 – 114.6 IND
Expected total
238.5
PacersThe matchupHeat
+280Our fair odds−280
114.6Expected points123.9
−0.82Power rating−0.04
115.0Points / game113.0
114.8Allowed / game120.8
47.2FG%45.4
30.63P%32.0
44.0Rebounds / game42.8
2−3Season record1−4
3−7Last 104−6
Ben Sheppard · Ivica Zubac
Johnny Furphy · Obi Toppin
T.J. McConnellOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · MIA chance
Our model fair26.3%73.7%
Kalshi29.4%75.3%
Polymarket US29.4%74.4%
ProphetX28.5%74.2%
Novig27.0%73.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:58 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:58 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:59 PM CT
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+28026%+24029.4%+24029.4%+25128.5%+27027.0%
MIAMiami Heat−28074%−30675.3%−29074.4%−28874.2%−27773.5%
SpreadMIA by 9.3
INDIndiana Pacers+9.3our margin+8.5 −10751.8%+8.5 −10751.7%+8.5 −10350.8%+8.5 +10050.0%
MIAMiami Heat−9.3our margin−8.5 −11252.7%−8.5 −11252.7%−8.5 −10751.7%−8.5 −10250.5%
Totalwe expect 238.5
Over238.5our totalo237.5 −10350.7%o237.5 −10350.7%o237.5 −10050.0%o237.5 +10449.0%
Under238.5our totalu237.5 −11653.7%u237.5 −11653.7%u237.5 −11052.4%u237.5 −10651.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 9.3 expected
Indiana Pacers by 51 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 3%Miami Heat by 15 points: 3%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 21 points: 2%Miami Heat by 22 points: 2%Miami Heat by 23 points: 2%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 33 points: 1%Miami Heat by 34 points: 1%Miami Heat by 35 points: 1%Miami Heat by 36 points: 1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 50 points: <1%Miami Heat by 51 points: <1%
← IND wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more65%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more49%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more35%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.5 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.568%
Total over 238.549%
Total over 248.531%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Miami Heat
GKlay Thompsonstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·MIA
Oct 28 vs PHI
last game
Oct 28 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 30, 6:45 PM ET
INDBen Sheppard · left meniscus surgeryOut
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl repair / surgeryOut
INDObi Toppin · low back sorenessOut
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · left hamstring strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
IND·MIA
−0.82
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
115.0
points / game
113.0
114.8
points allowed / game
120.8
2−3
season record
1−4
0−2
home record
0−3
2−1
away record
1−1
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
4−6
47.2
FG%
45.4
30.6
3P%
32.0
44.0
rebounds / game
42.8
29.4
assists / game
27.0
15.4
turnovers / game
14.8
55.2
points in paint / game
52.4

Rating Trend

IND · MIA · 10 days
Indiana PacersMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Mar 29at INDIND 135 − 118
Jan 10at INDIND 123 − 99
Dec 27, 2025at MIAMIA 142 − 116
Feb 28, 2025at MIAMIA 125 − 120
Jan 2, 2025at MIAIND 128 − 115
Nov 17, 2024at INDIND 119 − 110
Nov 15, 2024at INDMIA 124 − 111
Apr 7, 2024at INDIND 117 − 115
Dec 2, 2023at MIAIND 144 − 129
Nov 30, 2023at MIAMIA 142 − 132

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 28vs PHI109 − 114L
Oct 26at MIL102 − 110L
Oct 25at BKN136 − 109W
Oct 23vs DAL105 − 121L
Oct 21at NO123 − 120W
Apr 12vs DET121 − 133L
Apr 10vs PHI94 − 105L
Apr 9at BKN123 − 94W
Apr 7vs MIN104 − 124L
Apr 5at CLE108 − 117L

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 28at ATL129 − 117W
Oct 26vs DAL109 − 113L
Oct 24at CHA110 − 115L
Oct 23vs DET111 − 128L
Oct 21vs MIN106 − 131L
Apr 12vs ATL143 − 117W
Apr 10at WSH140 − 117W
Apr 9at TOR114 − 128L
Apr 7at TOR95 − 121L
Apr 4vs WSH152 − 136W