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Rockets at Suns

NBA · Saturday, Nov 7 · 8:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 7

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
HOU by 5.1
Expected score
HOU 113.1 – 108.0 PHX
Expected total
221.1
RocketsThe matchupSuns
−146Our fair odds+146
113.1Expected points108.0
+0.66Power rating−0.03
121.0Points / game112.0
110.0Allowed / game124.5
50.0FG%46.5
37.23P%34.0
45.5Rebounds / game40.2
5−1Season record1−3
7−3Last 102−8
Fred VanVleet G · Reed Sheppard G
Steven Adams COutMark Williams C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · PHX chance
Our model fair59.3%40.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−14659%————
PHXPhoenix Suns+14641%————
SpreadHOU by 5.1
HOUHouston Rockets−5.1our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns+5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.1
Over221.1our total————
Under221.1our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 5.1 expected
Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%
← HOU wins byPHX wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more54%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more39%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.1 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.568%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonlast game
FKevin Durantlast game
FJabari Smith Jr.last game
CClint Capelalast game
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerlast game
GJalen Greenlast game
FDillon Brookslast game
FMiles Bridgeslast game
CKhaman Maluachlast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·PHX
Oct 30 at DAL
last game
Oct 30 vs DEN
7 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet G · right kneeOut
HOUReed Sheppard G · backOut
HOUSteven Adams C · right calf strainOut
Phoenix Suns
PHXMark Williams C · left shoulder surgery, back about Feb 3, 2027Out

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
HOU·PHX
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
121.0
points / game
112.0
110.0
points allowed / game
124.5
5−1
season record
1−3
2−0
home record
1−1
3−1
away record
0−2
L1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
2−8
50.0
FG%
46.5
37.2
3P%
34.0
45.5
rebounds / game
40.2
28.0
assists / game
27.5
16.2
turnovers / game
15.2
50.0
points in paint / game
47.0

Rating Trend

HOU · PHX · 11 days
Houston RocketsPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 1−9
Apr 7at PHXHOU 119 − 105
Jan 5at HOUHOU 100 − 97
Dec 5, 2025at HOUHOU 117 − 98
Nov 24, 2025at PHXHOU 114 − 92
Mar 30, 2025at PHXHOU 148 − 109
Mar 12, 2025at HOUHOU 111 − 104
Feb 12, 2025at HOUHOU 119 − 111
Mar 2, 2024at PHXHOU 118 − 109
Feb 29, 2024at PHXPHX 110 − 105
Feb 23, 2024at HOUHOU 114 − 110

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 30at DAL111 − 116L
Oct 28at MIL132 − 100W
Oct 26vs ATL120 − 110W
Oct 24at ATL121 − 114W
Oct 23at SA114 − 110W
Oct 21vs DAL128 − 110W
May 1vs LAL78 − 98L
Apr 29at LAL99 − 93W
Apr 26vs LAL115 − 96W
Apr 24vs LAL108 − 112L

PHX · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Oct 30vs DEN120 − 127L
Oct 26at OKC114 − 125L
Oct 24vs GS131 − 122W
Oct 21at POR83 − 124L
Apr 27vs OKC122 − 131L
Apr 25vs OKC109 − 121L
Apr 22at OKC107 − 120L
Apr 19at OKC84 − 119L
Apr 12at OKC135 − 103W
Apr 10at LAL73 − 101L