bayesRatings

Saints at Panthers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 12:00 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · Final NO 17 – CAR 7
← NFL / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO370717
CAR70007
Team box
NO·CAR
388
total yards
175
266
passing yards
102
122
rushing yards
73
17
first downs
13
8-17
third downs
3-9
1
turnovers
2
33:21
time of possession
26:39
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyler ShoughNO19/2728220
Bryce YoungCAR17/2512401
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Alvin KamaraNO22830
Rico DowdleCAR18531
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Chris OlaveNO51041
Tetairoa McMillanCAR5600

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +10
NO +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CAR 7 · NO 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 33%, CAR 67% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
CAR by 6.5
Expected score
CAR 23.4 – 16.9 NO
Expected total
40.4
SaintsThe matchupPanthers
+199Our fair odds−199
16.9Expected points23.4
−0.91Power rating−0.46
15.3Points / game18.9
27.0Allowed / game22.8
287Total yards / game311
4.8Yards / play4.9
198Passing yards / game171
1−8Season record5−4
1−9Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · CAR chance
Our model fair33.5%66.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Saints+19933%————
CARCarolina Panthers−19967%————
SpreadCAR by 6.5
NONew Orleans Saints+6.5our margin————
CARCarolina Panthers−6.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.4
Over40.4our total————
Under40.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Panthers by 6.5 expected
New Orleans Saints by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 7%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 41 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 42 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 43 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 44 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 45 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 46 points: <1%
← NO wins byCAR wins by →
Carolina Panthers wins by 3 or more61%
Carolina Panthers wins by 7 or more46%
Carolina Panthers wins by 10 or more37%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.4 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.569%
Total over 40.548%
Total over 47.528%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 57% completions, 101 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 61% completions, 146 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·CAR
Nov 2, 2025 at LAR
last game
Nov 2, 2025 at GB
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
NO·CAR
−0.91
rating (0 = average)
−0.46
15.3
points / game
18.9
27.0
points allowed / game
22.8
1−8
season record
5−4
1−4
home record
3−1
0−4
away record
2−3
L4
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
6−4
287
total yards / game
311
4.8
yards / play
4.9
198
passing yards / game
171
90
rushing yards / game
140
18.1
first downs / game
20.6
1.6
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

NO · CAR · 26 days
New Orleans SaintsCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CAR 4−4
Nov 3, 2024at CARCAR 23 − 22
Sep 8, 2024at NONO 47 − 10
Dec 10, 2023at NONO 28 − 6
Sep 18, 2023at CARNO 20 − 17
Jan 8, 2023at NOCAR 10 − 7
Sep 25, 2022at CARCAR 22 − 14
Jan 2, 2022at NONO 18 − 10
Sep 19, 2021at CARCAR 26 − 7

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L4
Nov 2, 2025at LAR10 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025vs TB3 − 23L
Oct 19, 2025at CHI14 − 26L
Oct 12, 2025vs NE19 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025vs NYG26 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025at BUF19 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025at SEA13 − 44L
Sep 14, 2025vs SF21 − 26L
Sep 7, 2025vs ARI13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025at TB19 − 27L

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 2, 2025at GB16 − 13W
Oct 26, 2025vs BUF9 − 40L
Oct 19, 2025at NYJ13 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025vs DAL30 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs MIA27 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at NE13 − 42L
Sep 21, 2025vs ATL30 − 0W
Sep 14, 2025at ARI22 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025at JAX10 − 26L
Jan 5, 2025at ATL44 − 38W