bayesRatings

Panthers at Falcons

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final CAR 30 – ATL 27
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
CAR7398330
ATL71406027
Team box
CAR·ATL
486
total yards
348
419
passing yards
223
67
rushing yards
125
22
first downs
23
6-17
third downs
4-11
0
turnovers
1
37:07
time of possession
27:43
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bryce YoungCAR31/4544830
Michael Penix Jr.ATL13/1617500
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rico DowdleCAR19450
Bijan RobinsonATL231042
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tetairoa McMillanCAR81302
Drake LondonATL71190

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +14
CAR +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: ATL 14 · CAR 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 38%, ATL 62% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 5.9
Expected score
ATL 23.3 – 17.4 CAR
Expected total
40.8
PanthersThe matchupFalcons
+160Our fair odds−160
17.4Expected points23.3
−0.62Power rating−0.40
17.7Points / game18.7
22.2Allowed / game23.2
297Total yards / game331
4.7Yards / play5.3
164Passing yards / game211
5−5Season record3−6
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · ATL chance
Our model fair38.5%61.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Panthers+16038%————
ATLAtlanta Falcons−16062%————
SpreadATL by 5.9
CARCarolina Panthers+5.9our margin————
ATLAtlanta Falcons−5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.8
Over40.8our total————
Under40.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Falcons by 5.9 expected
Carolina Panthers by 45 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 44 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 43 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 42 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 41 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 7%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 7%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 45 points: <1%
← CAR wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Falcons wins by 3 or more60%
Atlanta Falcons wins by 7 or more44%
Atlanta Falcons wins by 10 or more36%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.8 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.570%
Total over 40.549%
Total over 47.529%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 61% completions, 121 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 53% completions, 213 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·ATL
Nov 9, 2025 vs NO
last game
Nov 9, 2025 at IND
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
CAR·ATL
−0.62
rating (0 = average)
−0.40
17.7
points / game
18.7
22.2
points allowed / game
23.2
5−5
season record
3−6
3−2
home record
2−2
2−3
away record
1−4
L1
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
3−7
297
total yards / game
331
4.7
yards / play
5.3
164
passing yards / game
211
133
rushing yards / game
119
19.8
first downs / game
19.3
1.5
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

CAR · ATL · 29 days
Carolina PanthersAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATL 4−5
Sep 21, 2025at CARCAR 30 − 0
Jan 5, 2025at ATLCAR 44 − 38
Oct 13, 2024at CARATL 38 − 20
Dec 17, 2023at CARCAR 9 − 7
Sep 10, 2023at ATLATL 24 − 10
Nov 10, 2022at CARCAR 25 − 15
Oct 30, 2022at ATLATL 37 − 34
Dec 12, 2021at CARATL 29 − 21
Oct 31, 2021at ATLCAR 19 − 13

CAR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 9, 2025vs NO7 − 17L
Nov 2, 2025at GB16 − 13W
Oct 26, 2025vs BUF9 − 40L
Oct 19, 2025at NYJ13 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025vs DAL30 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs MIA27 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at NE13 − 42L
Sep 21, 2025vs ATL30 − 0W
Sep 14, 2025at ARI22 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025at JAX10 − 26L

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Nov 9, 2025at IND25 − 31L
Nov 2, 2025at NE23 − 24L
Oct 26, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Oct 19, 2025at SF10 − 20L
Oct 13, 2025vs BUF24 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025vs WSH34 − 27W
Sep 21, 2025at CAR0 − 30L
Sep 14, 2025at MIN22 − 6W
Sep 7, 2025vs TB20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs CAR38 − 44L