bayesRatings

Packers at Giants

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final GB 27 – NYG 20
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GB0136827
NYG760720
Team box
GB·NYG
296
total yards
336
168
passing yards
194
128
rushing yards
142
19
first downs
22
7-11
third downs
7-14
0
turnovers
2
24:04
time of possession
35:56
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB13/2417420
Jameis WinstonNYG19/2920101
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Josh JacobsGB7400
Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG19880
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Romeo DoubsGB4530
Isaiah HodginsNYG5570

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYG +7
GB +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYG 7 · GB 7lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 69%, NYG 31% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
GB by 7.8
Expected score
GB 26.1 – 18.4 NYG
Expected total
44.5
PackersThe matchupGiants
−226Our fair odds+226
26.1Expected points18.4
+0.43Power rating−0.72
23.7Points / game21.7
19.6Allowed / game27.3
349Total yards / game333
5.7Yards / play5.2
237Passing yards / game210
5−3−1Season record2−8
5−4−1Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · NYG chance
Our model fair69.3%30.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers−22669%————
NYGNew York Giants+22631%————
SpreadGB by 7.8
GBGreen Bay Packers−7.8our margin————
NYGNew York Giants+7.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.5
Over44.5our total————
Under44.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Green Bay Packers by 7.8 expected
Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 5%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 5%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 8%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%New York Giants by 2 points: 2%New York Giants by 3 points: 5%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 1%New York Giants by 6 points: 2%New York Giants by 7 points: 2%New York Giants by 8 points: 2%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 1%New York Giants by 11 points: <1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: 1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: <1%New York Giants by 16 points: <1%New York Giants by 17 points: 1%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: <1%New York Giants by 21 points: <1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%
← GB wins byNYG wins by →
Green Bay Packers wins by 3 or more68%
Green Bay Packers wins by 7 or more51%
Green Bay Packers wins by 10 or more43%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.5 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.568%
Total over 44.547%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 68% completions, 270 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted
NYGJameis Winston · last 3 games: 60% completions, 285 yds/game, 6 TD, 8 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·NYG
Nov 10, 2025 vs PHI
last game
Nov 9, 2025 at CHI
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
GB·NYG
+0.43
rating (0 = average)
−0.72
23.7
points / game
21.7
19.6
points allowed / game
27.3
5−3−1
season record
2−8
3−2
home record
2−2
2−1−1
away record
0−6
L2
streak
L4
5−4−1
last 10
2−8
349
total yards / game
333
5.7
yards / play
5.2
237
passing yards / game
210
112
rushing yards / game
123
20.6
first downs / game
20.5
0.8
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

GB · NYG · 29 days
Green Bay PackersNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · NYG 2−0
Dec 11, 2023at NYGNYG 24 − 22
Oct 9, 2022at GBNYG 27 − 22

GB · Last 10

5−4−1 · streak L2
Nov 10, 2025vs PHI7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs CAR13 − 16L
Oct 26, 2025at PIT35 − 25W
Oct 19, 2025at ARI27 − 23W
Oct 12, 2025vs CIN27 − 18W
Sep 28, 2025at DAL40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CLE10 − 13L
Sep 11, 2025vs WSH27 − 18W
Sep 7, 2025vs DET27 − 13W
Jan 12, 2025at PHI10 − 22L

NYG · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Nov 9, 2025at CHI20 − 24L
Nov 2, 2025vs SF24 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025at PHI20 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025at DEN32 − 33L
Oct 9, 2025vs PHI34 − 17W
Oct 5, 2025at NO14 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs LAC21 − 18W
Sep 21, 2025vs KC9 − 22L
Sep 14, 2025at DAL37 − 40L
Sep 7, 2025at WSH6 − 21L