bayesRatings

49ers at Cardinals

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 3:05 PM CT · State Farm Stadium · Final SF 41 – ARI 22
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF131210641
ARI7301222
Team box
SF·ARI
281
total yards
488
186
passing yards
452
95
rushing yards
36
24
first downs
24
3-9
third downs
6-14
0
turnovers
3
25:45
time of possession
34:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brock PurdySF19/2620030
Jacoby BrissettARI47/5745222
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF13812
Bam KnightARI5241
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
George KittleSF6672
Michael WilsonARI151850

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +25
SF +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ARI 0 · SF 25lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 50%, ARI 50% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
ARI by 1.6
Expected score
ARI 24.2 – 22.6 SF
Expected total
46.8
49ersThe matchupCardinals
+102Our fair odds−102
22.6Expected points24.2
+0.07Power rating−0.19
22.0Points / game22.4
23.0Allowed / game23.9
356Total yards / game316
5.5Yards / play4.9
261Passing yards / game203
6−4Season record3−6
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · ARI chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers+10250%————
ARIArizona Cardinals−10250%————
SpreadARI by 1.6
SFSan Francisco 49ers+1.6our margin————
ARIArizona Cardinals−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.8
Over46.8our total————
Under46.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Cardinals by 1.6 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 8%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 7%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%
← SF wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Cardinals wins by 3 or more47%
Arizona Cardinals wins by 7 or more31%
Arizona Cardinals wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.8 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 69% completions, 321 yds/game, 7 TD, 6 INTstarted
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 61% completions, 266 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·ARI
Nov 9, 2025 vs LAR
last game
Nov 9, 2025 at SEA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
SF·ARI
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
22.0
points / game
22.4
23.0
points allowed / game
23.9
6−4
season record
3−6
2−2
home record
1−3
4−2
away record
2−3
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
356
total yards / game
316
5.5
yards / play
4.9
261
passing yards / game
203
95
rushing yards / game
113
21.6
first downs / game
19.7
1.5
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

SF · ARI · 29 days
San Francisco 49ersArizona Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ARI 4−5
Sep 21, 2025at SFSF 16 − 15
Jan 5, 2025at ARIARI 47 − 24
Oct 6, 2024at SFARI 24 − 23
Dec 17, 2023at ARISF 45 − 29
Oct 1, 2023at SFSF 35 − 16
Jan 8, 2023at SFSF 38 − 13
Nov 21, 2022at ARISF 38 − 10
Nov 7, 2021at SFARI 31 − 17
Oct 10, 2021at ARIARI 17 − 10

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 9, 2025vs LAR26 − 42L
Nov 2, 2025at NYG34 − 24W
Oct 26, 2025at HOU15 − 26L
Oct 19, 2025vs ATL20 − 10W
Oct 12, 2025at TB19 − 30L
Oct 2, 2025at LAR26 − 23W
Sep 28, 2025vs JAX21 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs ARI16 − 15W
Sep 14, 2025at NO26 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at SEA17 − 13W

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Nov 9, 2025at SEA22 − 44L
Nov 3, 2025at DAL27 − 17W
Oct 19, 2025vs GB23 − 27L
Oct 12, 2025at IND27 − 31L
Oct 5, 2025vs TEN21 − 22L
Sep 25, 2025vs SEA20 − 23L
Sep 21, 2025at SF15 − 16L
Sep 14, 2025vs CAR27 − 22W
Sep 7, 2025at NO20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs SF47 − 24W