bayesRatings

Seahawks at Rams

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 3:05 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final SEA 19 – LAR 21
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SEA363719
LAR1400721
Team box
SEA·LAR
414
total yards
249
279
passing yards
130
135
rushing yards
119
26
first downs
12
7-16
third downs
2-11
4
turnovers
1
37:49
time of possession
22:11
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Sam DarnoldSEA29/4427904
Matthew StaffordLAR15/2813020
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenneth Walker IIISEA16671
Kyren WilliamsLAR12911
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA91050
Puka NacuaLAR7750

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAR +11
SEA +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAR 11 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 42%, LAR 58% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
LAR by 1.4
Expected score
LAR 23.2 – 21.9 SEA
Expected total
45.1
SeahawksThe matchupRams
+139Our fair odds−139
21.9Expected points23.2
+0.68Power rating+0.75
30.6Points / game27.9
19.1Allowed / game17.0
360Total yards / game373
6.4Yards / play5.8
246Passing yards / game260
7−2Season record7−2
8−2Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · LAR chance
Our model fair41.9%58.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks+13942%————
LARLos Angeles Rams−13958%————
SpreadLAR by 1.4
SEASeattle Seahawks+1.4our margin————
LARLos Angeles Rams−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.1
Over45.1our total————
Under45.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 1.4 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 8%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%
← SEA wins byLAR wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more47%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more31%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.1 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.546%
Total over 52.528%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 72% completions, 240 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 68% completions, 248 yds/game, 13 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·LAR
Nov 9, 2025 vs ARI
last game
Nov 9, 2025 at SF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
SEA·LAR
+0.68
rating (0 = average)
+0.75
30.6
points / game
27.9
19.1
points allowed / game
17.0
7−2
season record
7−2
3−2
home record
3−1
4−0
away record
4−1
W4
streak
W4
8−2
last 10
7−3
360
total yards / game
373
6.4
yards / play
5.8
246
passing yards / game
260
114
rushing yards / game
113
19.9
first downs / game
23.9
1.8
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

SEA · LAR · 29 days
Seattle SeahawksLos Angeles Rams
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LAR 5−3
Jan 5, 2025at LARSEA 30 − 25
Nov 3, 2024at SEALAR 26 − 20
Nov 19, 2023at LARLAR 17 − 16
Sep 10, 2023at SEALAR 30 − 13
Jan 8, 2023at SEASEA 19 − 16
Dec 4, 2022at LARSEA 27 − 23
Dec 21, 2021at LARLAR 20 − 10
Oct 7, 2021at SEALAR 26 − 17

SEA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Nov 9, 2025vs ARI44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025at WSH38 − 14W
Oct 20, 2025vs HOU27 − 19W
Oct 12, 2025at JAX20 − 12W
Oct 5, 2025vs TB35 − 38L
Sep 25, 2025at ARI23 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025vs NO44 − 13W
Sep 14, 2025at PIT31 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025vs SF13 − 17L
Jan 5, 2025at LAR30 − 25W

LAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Nov 9, 2025at SF42 − 26W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at JAX35 − 7W
Oct 12, 2025at BAL17 − 3W
Oct 2, 2025vs SF23 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at PHI26 − 33L
Sep 14, 2025at TEN33 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025vs HOU14 − 9W
Jan 19, 2025at PHI22 − 28L