bayesRatings

Buccaneers at Bills

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 12:00 PM CT · Highmark Stadium (Old) · Final TB 32 – BUF 44
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TB3176632
BUF714101344
Team box
TB·BUF
367
total yards
414
165
passing yards
317
202
rushing yards
97
21
first downs
19
9-16
third downs
6-11
2
turnovers
3
35:07
time of possession
24:53
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Baker MayfieldTB16/2817311
Josh AllenBUF19/3031732
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Sean TuckerTB191062
James Cook IIIBUF16480
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Sterling ShepardTB4540
Tyrell ShaversBUF4901

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +12
TB +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BUF 12 · TB 5lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 38%, BUF 62% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 4.2
Expected score
BUF 28.0 – 23.8 TB
Expected total
51.8
BuccaneersThe matchupBills
+163Our fair odds−163
23.8Expected points28.0
+0.37Power rating+0.61
24.4Points / game27.6
22.9Allowed / game21.9
328Total yards / game384
5.3Yards / play6.1
229Passing yards / game231
6−3Season record6−3
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BUF chance
Our model fair38.0%62.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+16338%————
BUFBuffalo Bills−16362%————
SpreadBUF by 4.2
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+4.2our margin————
BUFBuffalo Bills−4.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 51.8
Over51.8our total————
Under51.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 4.2 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 43 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 8%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 7%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 42 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 43 points: <1%
← TB wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more55%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more39%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

51.8 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 44.566%
Total over 51.548%
Total over 58.532%
Total from 45 to 5835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 61% completions, 218 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 74% completions, 247 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BUF
Nov 9, 2025 vs NE
last game
Nov 9, 2025 at MIA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
TB·BUF
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.61
24.4
points / game
27.6
22.9
points allowed / game
21.9
6−3
season record
6−3
2−2
home record
4−1
4−1
away record
2−2
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
328
total yards / game
384
5.3
yards / play
6.1
229
passing yards / game
231
100
rushing yards / game
153
19.4
first downs / game
22.8
0.6
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

TB · BUF · 29 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersBuffalo Bills
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · BUF 1−1
Oct 26, 2023at BUFBUF 24 − 18
Dec 12, 2021at TBTB 33 − 27

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 9, 2025vs NE23 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at NO23 − 3W
Oct 20, 2025at DET9 − 24L
Oct 12, 2025vs SF30 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at SEA38 − 35W
Sep 28, 2025vs PHI25 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 27W
Sep 15, 2025at HOU20 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025at ATL23 − 20W
Jan 12, 2025vs WSH20 − 23L

BUF · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 9, 2025at MIA13 − 30L
Nov 2, 2025vs KC28 − 21W
Oct 26, 2025at CAR40 − 9W
Oct 13, 2025at ATL14 − 24L
Oct 5, 2025vs NE20 − 23L
Sep 28, 2025vs NO31 − 19W
Sep 18, 2025vs MIA31 − 21W
Sep 14, 2025at NYJ30 − 10W
Sep 7, 2025vs BAL41 − 40W
Jan 26, 2025at KC29 − 32L